Category: Resources

Categories
Earnings Economics Market Recap Market Update Resources Stock Market

Stock Market Recap & Outlook (1/27/23) – Earnings and Core PCE

This weekly market recap is brought to you by Koyfin, a powerful analytical tool that I am proud to partner with. Their platform is entirely customizable for whatever data you want to look at including stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, currencies, economic data releases (one of my personal favorites used often for these posts), crypto, and even transcripts of company events! Click the link above to get a special offer only for Dividend Dollar readers or go give my product review a read if you’re interested!

Weekly Market Review

The January rally carried on as investors received more market-moving earnings results and data releases this week. The positive bias had the S&P 500 get back above its 200-day moving average and stay there all week.

Things got started on an upbeat note on Monday after an article by Nick Timiraos (chief economics correspondent for WSJ and Fed’s assumed preferred source for divulging information to)  highlighted the possibility of the Fed pausing its rate hikes this spring.

Monday also brought us a survey of businesses by the NABE that conveyed a lower possibility (56% vs nearly two-thirds before) of the U.S. being in a recession or entering one.

The market hit a speed bump on Tuesday with a lot of divergent stock prices for a number of NYSE-listed stocks including Morgan Stanley ($MS), AT&T ($T), Verizon ($VZ), Nike ($NKE) and more. The abnormality quickly led to volatility halts brining many of us to wonder what was going on. The official explanation turned out to be an “exchange-related issue.” The issue seemed to be resolved quickly with announcements of some trades will be declared null.

Defense-related companies Lockheed Martin ($LMT) and Raytheon Technologies ($RTX) reported positive quarterly results.

Market strength was offset by some disappointing earnings/guidance from the likes of  Verizon ($VZ), 3M ($MMM), Union Pacific ($UNP), and General Electric ($GE), along with the news that the U.S. filed an antitrust lawsuit against Google over alleged dominance in digital advertising.

Price action on Wednesday was integral to keeping the rally alive this week. Valuation concerns from Microsoft’s ($MSFT) disappointing fiscal Q3 outlook and expected growth deceleration for its Azure business fueled a broad retreat to kick off the session.

Investors also had a negative reaction initially to results and/or guidance from the likes of Dow component Boeing ($BA), Texas Instruments ($TXN), Kimberly-Clark ($KMB), and Norfolk Southern ($NSC).

Buyers showed up quickly after the S&P 500 dipped below its 200-day moving average to push the market higher. Most stocks either narrowed their losses or completely recovered and closed the session with a gain.

After the strong reversal on Wednesday, Tesla ($TSLA) reported strong quarterly results and outlook, which helped the rebound in the mega cap space, and Chevron ($CVX) announced a massive $75 billion stock repurchase program announcement.

There was also a number of positive data releases Thursday that helped support a positive bias. The Advance Q4 GDP Report increased at an annual rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022. The second estimate will be released towards the end of February.

Weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased by 6,000 compared to the previous week. The current level of 186,000 is well below the 4-week moving average of 197,500.

December durable goods orders came in better than expected, as well. Orders increased 5.6% month over month to $286.9B versus an estimated 2.5%. This is especially a good reading compared to a -1.7% decrease from revised numbers last month. Excluding defense, the durable goods orders were up 6.3% for the month. Inventories, up for 23 consecutive months at this point, increase again by 0.7%.

The rally effort continued on Friday despite Intel ($INTC) reporting ugly results and guidance, KLA Corp. ($KLAC) issuing below-consensus guidance, Chevron ($CVX) missing on earnings estimates, and Hasbro ($HAS) issuing a Q4 profit warning.

On Friday, the PCE Price Index was released. Results were up 0.1% month-over-month while the core-PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.3%, as expected. That left the year-over-year changes at 5.0% and 4.4%, respectively, versus 5.5% and 4.7% in November.

There was a sharp pullback before Friday’s close, as people took money off of the table heading into a big week of earnings next week from Alphabet ($GOOG), Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), and Meta. Other catalysts include the FOMC decision and the January Employment Report.

Only two S&P 500 sectors registered losses this week — utilities (-0.5%) and health care (-0.9%) — while the consumer discretionary (+6.4%), information technology (+4.1%), and communication services (+3.3%) sectors led the outperformers.

 

Dividend Dollars’ Outlook & Opinion

That’s it for the recap. Now for my opinion!

As mentioned in the last market update, I was expecting a red week this week and people took money off the table leading into an earnings heavy week. My other, less anticipated call, was that stocks could break above the downtrend line. This was the outcome to took precedent.

Stocks looked to trend higher this week and was supported by better than feared (notice the “better than feared” vs “better than expected” clarification was intentional) earnings reports and economic data! No data report this week was too good or too bad, and more items like this support the chance of an actual soft landing for the economy. We will have a better feeling for this next week after the FOMC meeting, but in the meantime bias is positive.

147 of the S&P 500 companies have released earnings so far. 50% have beat on top line expectations and 69% have beat on bottom line. The 50% beat rate, should it hold, would be the lowest top line rate since before the pandemic. Next week is a big earnings week and will give us more information on potential earnings recession. This information is tracked using MarketBeat.

 The S&P chart has turned bullish as the market pushed above the downtrend and put some space between price and the SMA 200. We have had the highest number of daily closes above the 200 day SMA in 2023 so far since last spring. The next level I see is around 4,080 that has rejected three times.

Similarly, the Nasdaq Composite index has a level a 11,617 to get over. It is also approaching the change to break above the 200 day SMA for the first time in a year. Additionally, the index is above is 11,500 resistance level. It looks bullish but the coming earnings from mega-cap tech names have the potential to move it.

Overall, stocks are riding recent bullish momentum and are being supported by technical developments. The market appears to be hopeful that the Fed will show a less aggressive stance on rates. We have seen this optimism in the past before, but we haven’t seen the Fed move into a stock friendly stance. Maybe that happens at the next meeting, maybe we get more information on potential rate hike path.

We will see what happens with the Fed next week and will have a better feel  of what’s going on in tech. With VIX as low as it is, a slurry of stocks reaching 52 week highs, decent earnings and data, the bulls appear to be in control for the near term. Potential for volatility next week is high. I think the market is moderately bullish in the first of the week then could be volatile in either direction depending on those factors.

That’s it for my recap! If you would like to see how I am building my dividend portfolio using my predictions/strategy written here, you can read about my buys in my weekly portfolio update on this link.

And if you like updates like this, follow my Twitter or my CommonStock page where I post updates on the economic data throughout the week.

Regards,

Dividend Dollars

Categories
Resources

Koyfin Review: A Robust Analytical Tool to Empower Every Investor

For me, investing in the stock market is the single most important aspect of reaching financial freedom. Unfortunately, investing can be seen as a zero-sum game as it provides everyone with equal opportunity to make money. There are winners and losers. So how do you try to make sure that you’re consistently on the winning side?

There are two quick tips to help you with this. First is knowing your time horizon and investing through long-term positions. Second is having the right tools and knowledge to help you find the right opportunities.

The latter is where Koyfin comes in. Koyfin is a free stock market dashboard that allows users to pair fundamental and technical analysis on one screen. Koyfin offers seemingly infinite ways to customize your dashboard in a way that complements your strategy.

What is Koyfin?

Koyfin is an investment analytics platform created in 2016 by former Wall Street Traders and CEO Rob Koyfman. Through my affiliation with the CommonStock creator’s group, I actually got to hop in a zoom call for a Koyfin demo led by the CEO himself.

What he showed was awesome. Through his time on Wall Street with Goldman Sachs and his use of their outdated and expensive data terminals he decided that there had to be a better way to analyze data and get some insight for investing.

Every industry he could think of had turned to tech and put the user first, all expect investing. His mission became to revolutionize the industry by building a platform that puts the user in control, gives them access to live data on anything you can think of, provides strong analytical tools, and all at a price that doesn’t keep retail investors out of the game.

And Koyfin has done just that. Their platform puts amazing analytical power at your fingertips. You can browse data across all asset classes. You can build dashboards to keep information relevant to your strategy at the forefront of your attention. You can dive into a company’s financials, read transcripts of their events, chart with more technical indicators than you can even thing of, you can pick apart economic news and even twitter chatter. Koyfin brings into your view all the things that move the stock market and affect your portfolio.

Features

Financial Analysis

As a dividend investor, financial analysis is key to what I do. Koyfin provides comprehensive financial analysis and is one of its distinguishing factors for me.

Koyfin gets you access to all of the financial statements that public companies release. The way that it is structured helps to reduce the complexity of financial statement analysis and keeps the essentials very easy to access.

You can dive into financial statements, look at valuation metrics, pick apart analyst estimates, look at profitability measures, solvency ratios, cash flow measures, and anything else you can imagine. Better yet, any financial measurement or piece of data can be overlayed onto the stock’s chart to help you find correlations and form trade ideas.

You have quick access to key financial highlights. You can even create your own financial templates and build it so that you are only ever looking at the metrics that you care about. That way you can continuously keep track of a company’s financial health according to your own preferences.

Dashboards

Koyfin’s dashboard capabilities are awesome. You can use their premade dashboards for “Today’s Markets”, “Market News”, “Market Movers”, and a premade dashboard for items you add to a watchlist.

The “Today’s Market” dashboard is a one-stop-shop as you can see in the screenshot below. It provides you breakdowns of major indexes, sectors, commodities, global markets, news, and more. If you want to stay plugged into what’s happening the markets, this is your screen.

Charting and Technical Analysis

Koyfin’s charting capabilities are by far my favorite aspect of the website. You can chart your favorite stocks and add any number of indicators that fit with your charting/investing style. Take the below screenshot for example, I charted Cummins ($CMI) with Bollinger Bands, an EMA, and an RSI indicator. There are swaths of other things you can add to the chart. You can even add financials to the chart, like the FCF I added to the below chart. You can add things like EPS, EPS surprise based on analyst consensus, debt levels, market cap, even share repurchases!

Not only can you customize stock charts with an unimaginable number of fundamental, technical, and valuation indicators, statistics, and drawings, but you can put together these charts on commodities, currencies, ETFs, mutual funds, options, crypto, and even economic reports. For example, view below the chart I used when writing about the PMI report in a pervious economic update article.

Pricing

Amazingly, most of the items an investor would care about is available to free users. If you find that you’re itching for more, the scale up for greater access is pretty reasonable. I could not do what I do without the basic plan, if I’m being honest with you. The full access to the snapshots is what I use to put together my charts with all of the special indicators, fundamentals, and valuation data. Reader’s of Dividend Dollars can get special 10% of any Koyfin package using this link, otherwise definitely try out the free plan to give it a shot.

Koyfin Review Summary

In sum, think of Koyfin as a budget Bloomberg terminal. An analytical platform for researching stocks and other items for the mainstream investor! The best data and research out there are often locked behind a steep cost privy to analysts, firms, and funds. I honestly believe that Koyfin levels the playing field for investors like you and me.

Koyfin gives you everything you need to conduct property technical, fundamental, and market analysis while also giving you the tools to observe all of the assets that matter to you, all in one place. I’ve been using Koyfin for months, and I find it very difficult to use any other tool.

As mentioned before, my readers are offered a 10% discount on any Koyfin package. However, if you’re not interested in any package, still sign up for a free plan and give it a shot! All readers can sign up for Koyfin here.

Categories
Resources

Sharesight Review: Can I Finally Ditch My Excel Portfolio Tracker?

If you are a dividend investor, then you know that tracking your dividends and your portfolio performance is one of the most challenging and even frustrating aspects of dividend investing. We spend hours scouring the internet for a good excel/google sheets tracker or we spend even longer trying to build our own (I’ve been using my personal sheet for months and still adjust it)!

Lucky for us, there is website called Sharesight that eases some of this pain. In this article we will review Sharesight, its features and capabilities, pricing, how I make use of it, and my impressions of the service.

What is Sharesight?

Sharesight is a website and mobile app that lets you track all of your investments in one place. And when I say “all of your investments” I mean ALL. Sharesight’s platform tracks stocks and ETFs from exchanges worldwide. You can track your cash, currencies, crypto, and even unlisted investments like properties or fixed interest securities.

If you connect your brokerage to Sharesight, it will track your portfolio in real time. It tracks your positions’ current price, so you no longer have to spend time updating that in your sheet row by row. It knows exactly when you buy/sell a stock and for how much and immediately reflects that in its tables and graphs.

Through being connected to your brokerage, it can track investment performance over any period of time. It will calculate your capital gains, dividends, fluctuations in currency values, and more. What’s really cool about Sharesight’s currency applications is that if you hold foreign currency or assets that are reported in a foreign currency, the platform will convert that value to standard currency so that you can review your entire portfolio in your base currency for an all-encompassing performance. Sharesight even allows you to connect multiple brokerages enabling you to see all of your investments in one place. You can group your investments and connected accounts in any way you see fit. You can even track your investments against any other equity of your choice to compare performance.

Sharesight gives you great clarity into the performance of the portfolio and puts tools at your fingertips to promote data driven decision making with your investments.

Sharesight Dashboard

The landing page of Sharesight is your portfolio overview. It appears fairly straight forward, but when you dig into it, you’ll find that there is a lot of capability built into the platform.

The Performance Graph:

The first part of the page is your portfolio’s performance graph. Here you can set the time frame you want to review, change the type of graph (stacked, bar, lines, etc.), compare portfolio performance to a benchmark of you choosing, and organize the graph by groupings of your choice.

The customizability of this is surprising. You can create groups, or use the standard ones already provided, to organize the chart in the way that best suits you. For example, you can create a group that organizes your positions by market cap to visualize your portfolio’s weighting in each.

For another example, you can set up a group that organizes your positions into stocks vs indexes, switch graph type to a performance index, and then you can see how your total portfolio performs compared a benchmark as well as your ETFs and stock holdings. Creative grouping and customization capabilities can bring a vast amount of data out of the portfolio’s graph.

Summary Section:

The summary tab shows you a breakdown of your capital gains, dividends, currency gains, and total return. If you have set up a benchmark for comparison, it will show up underneath your portfolio. In the top settings of the graph, you can change between looking at open vs open & closed positions and change the timeframe of your data. These settings will also update the summary tab for whatever timeframe you are wishing to look at.

Holdings Section:

The holdings section, like the others, adapts based on what settings you have set up at the top. In my screenshot, I have them grouped by market cap, open and closed positions, and timing since inception. This shows me all positions, their grouping that I choose to view them in, the number of stocks I have, current price, value, capital gains, dividend gains, currency gains, and total return.

You can also choose not to group them at all and just look at these in alphabetical order.

Other Tools:

At the top of the page are a few other tools. Add new holding is where you add a new position to your portfolio (if you brokerage is connected, this and other portfolio tracking activities are all automated). Add a cash account allows to add a cash position to your portfolio. Last is share checker and this one is the coolest. Share checker allows you to back test the performance of any stock on any timeframe with a $10,000 position.

I did this with Lockheed Martin ($LMT) which I just added to my latest portfolio update article. The share checker shows you the price action over your chosen timeframe, dividend payouts, stock classification information, capital gains, dividend gains, and total return. Back testing is a useful and important tool for many investors and Sharesight makes it very easy.

Individual Holdings

When you click on an individual holding or search for a specific stock, you will arrive at another similar landing page, but this time it is specific for that stock. It shows you a graph of the price, dividends, and summary tab breaking down the gains.

Further down from that it shows you all of your trades for the life of the stock, the dividends, and how those dividends were reinvested if at all. The tabs on the right, when expanded, show you information on the stock, your holding (cost base, value, quantity, etc.), and files or comments you have attached to the holding, and more. All of these things enable to track, monitor, and make notes on your position in whatever way you see fit. Just below that section, is a list of corporate news if you are looking to research the company.

Sharesight Reporting

Sharesight’s report tab is where a lot of investors will find the true value of this platform, particularly if you invest internationally or if you have a complex portfolio that makes tax season a burden. All of the reports are fairly self-explanatory, but there are a couple worth noting for the purposes of this review.

The performance report essentially shows the same thing as your holdings on the overview page. However, all of the reports allow you export the data as an excel file, google drive, or pdf. If you still manage your own portfolio in excel, utilizing the report to export stock data makes this much easier than manually updating everything.

The diversity report allows you to organize your portfolio in any grouping you see fit and produces a nice pie chart to visualize your exposure according to how you chose to customize it.

The contribution analysis shows you which stocks, sectors, industries, and other groups contribute the most to your overall return and which are hurting you the most. Useful for portfolio balancing and recognizing when to sell/buy.

The multi-currency valuation report is by far the best tool I’ve come across for investors that use different currencies. This report converts the value of your investments into the current value of whatever currency you choose from the Canadian dollar, to the Mexican peso, to the US dollar, to the British pound, and even crypto coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Litecoin.

Lastly, the tax and compliance reports are amazing. Today’s investors may have 2, 3, 4, or even 5+ investing accounts that they make use of. For tax purposes, tracking those dividend payments, interest payments, and capital gains when you sell across all of those accounts becomes a huge headache, even for the simplest investors out there. These reports make it easy to see all of those payments for the tax year and makes filing your returns a breeze.

Sharesight Drawbacks

My only complaint with Sharesight is that the initial set up of your portfolio can be quite a hassle if your brokerage doesn’t have the ability to provide you with a trade schedule to import that history into the platform. For example, I trade on Robinhood and that platform does not provide an exportable excel file of your history of trades. Therefore, in order to get your history imported into Sharesight you either need to add in every trade manually for as much history as you want tracked, or you make use of an API and generate trade report for yourself. Luckily, my girlfriend’s brother has some coding experience and was able to help me do the latter. However, without him, the initial Sharesight set up would have been a nightmare.

Some brokers will be better with the set up than others. Robinhood is not one of them. However, after you have everything set up properly, through the brokerage connection all portfolio tracking from there is automated and well worth the time needed to get it rolling.

Sharesight Summary

Overall, Sharesight is a great tool for the serious investor. Tracking a portfolio yourself is tough. There are services for it but most are lackluster. You can build your own tracking sheet, but that is manual and time consuming. Sharesight truly has everything a complicated investor needs as you can see by the strong data tools and reports that are vital for dividend investors and traders of currency.

Sharesight is growing and investing in improving their product which makes it great for long term users. They have over 300,000 users and community page where people can post, interact, and read release notes on updates and what’s coming. The platform also has a chat function where you can message with someone from the support team from 9AM-5PM Australian Eastern Time (Yes, Sharesight is an Australian company which explains why the functionality for international investors is so well thought-out).

If you are interested in trying out Sharesight, it is free if you have 10 holdings or less. They offer upgraded plans which allow you to track more holdings, portfolios, and gain access to some of the more complicated reports.

I truly find great value in this platform and am happy to be affiliated with it! Sharesight was kind enough to partner with me and offer 4 months free to any of my readers who sign up for an annual plan which already are discounted compared to the monthly pricing.

My website has always been about transparency with my investments and life, and that is no different with Sharesight. I would not promote a product to my readers without using it myself. I have been using it for the past couple of months and will continue to do so as it is a great tool for me.

I use it to update the prices of my positions through reporting and I use some of its graphing features in my weekly updates. If you think it will provide value to you as well, I would like to point you to the link below to offer you savings through my partnership which also helps to support me and this website! If you would like to look for other investment trackers, please visit my investing resources page!