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Stock Market Recap & Outlook (9/1/23) – Lackluster Data is Good for Rates

This weekly market recap is brought to you by Koyfin, a powerful analytical tool that I am proud to partner with. Their platform is entirely customizable for whatever data you want to look at including stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, currencies, economic data releases (one of my personal favorites used often for these posts), crypto, and even transcripts of company events! Click the link above to get a special offer only for Dividend Dollar readers or go give my product review a read if you’re interested!

Dividend Dollars’ Outlook & Opinion

Last week’s call of neutral to moderately bullish was a W as all the major indices are sitting at +1.4% or higher for the week. The moves higher this week we’re largely due to some worse than expected economic data releases. Though it sounds counterintuitive, the miss on Q2 GDP and JOLTS/ADP employment data had the market rethink their expectations for the Fed and Treasury yields, which caused this week’s bullishness.

Nonfarm payrolls had a negative revision to the past two months, average hourly earnings rose less than the estimate, and the unemployment rate rose higher than the estimate. The Fed has been closely watching the labor market, and this minor loss of strength shifted Fed rate forecasts more in favor of rate pauses rather than rate hikes. See the charts below from the CME FedWatch tool.

The odds of a pause in the September meeting increased from 80% to 93% this week, this would keep the rate at 525-550. The odds of keeping the 525-550 rate in the November meeting increased from 44% to 62%. The odds of keeping the 525-550 rate in the December meeting increased from 44% to 60%. These all suggest a higher likelihood of a dovish Fed for the rest of the year. Subsequently, treasury yields slid lower on this sentiment, helping stocks to edge higher.

From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 broke above the technical 4,450 level we have been watching. It ran higher with strength on Tuesday as the JOLTS data caused a lower reaction to yields, reclaiming the 50 day SMA in the process. The market pushed higher for the rest of the week, with less tenacity, and closed right under the 0.785 fib level. That level and July’s high of 4,600 will be the next areas of resistance, while the 50-day SMA and 4,450 are now our support levels under here.

A push higher would be greatly helped by a continued move down in the 10-year yield. Yields have pulled back a bit since the high hit on August 22nd, the bad news is that the rising channel is still intact. If the rate bounces higher off of this level, selling pressure will make it difficult for equities to push higher.

Overall, this was a good week. Pending home sales, initial jobless claims, personal spending, PMI, ISM, and construction spending all beat their estimates. PCE and core PCE were in line with theirs. Consumer confidence, JOLTS, HPI, ADP employment change, Q2 GDP, and unemployment all were worse than their estimates.

Next week brings us factory orders on Tuesday, the Fed’s Beige book, ISM, MBA mortgage, and trade balance data on Wednesday, claims and productivity on Thursday, and consumer credit on Friday. None of these will have too much influence on the market, but focus should be on the Beige Book and employment data. With bonds looking likely to be the driver in the market next week, I’m keeping my outlook of Neutral to Moderately Bullish for the week ahead.

Weekly Market Review

Monday:

Stocks started the last week of August on an upbeat note. The major indices closed near their best levels of the day on extremely light NYSE volume. The positive bias was partially fueled by carryover upside momentum from Friday’s rebound effort.

The indices were choppy as a result of fickle price action in the mega cap stocks, but they never slipped into negative territory due to broad buying. NVIDIA ($NVDA) had been down as much as 2.5% at its low of the day, but closed with a 1.8% gain.

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF ($MGK) rose 0.7%, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF ($RSP) rose 0.8%, and the market-cap weighted S&P 500 rose 0.6%.

3M ($MMM) was a standout winner following reports that the company is nearing a $5.5 billion settlement in the military earplugs case.

There was no economic data of note for Monday.

Tuesday:

It was another strong day for stocks on light volume. A drop in rates provided the positive catalyst for stocks. The S&P 500 climbed above its 50-day moving average after the open and closed just a whisker shy of the 4,500 level. All major indices closed near their highs of the day.

Treasury yields dropped following the release of the July JOLTS Report and August Consumer Confidence Index. Both of those reports were weaker than expected, which is a good thing in the market’s eyes as it relates to Fed policy.

Mega caps and other growth stocks led the upside charge, reacting positively to the drop in market rates. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF ($MGK) jumped 2.0% and the Russell 3000 Growth Index rose 1.9%.

A gain in Best Buy ($BBY) following its earnings results and outlook provided an additional boost to the consumer discretionary sector.

Economic data for the day included the June S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the August Consumer Confidence Report, and the July JOLTS job report.

The June Home Price Index composite moved lower at -1.2% YoY, beating the consensus of 0.9%. Both the 10-City & 20-City Composite increased 0.9% MoM. Among the 20 cities, Chicago, Cleveland, and New York posted the highest YoY gains at 4.2%, 4.1%, and 3.4%, while San Francisco and Seattle posted the worst at -9.7% and -8.8%.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 106.1 in August, down from 114.0 in July, wiping the gains from June and July. The decline is due to the Present Situation Index falling from 153.0 to 144.8 and the Expectations Index falling from 88.0 to 80.2. Consumers appear to be concerned about rising prices, for groceries and gasoline in particular. Expectations of 80 and lower have historically signaled a recession within the next year. The key takeaway from the report is that receding optimism about employment conditions negatively affected consumers’ view of the present situation and outlook.

The JOLTS jobs report showed lower openings in July, down 338,000 to 8.8 million, with decreases coming primarily from professional/business services, health care/social assistance, & state/federal government. Increases came from information and transportation, warehousing, & utilities.

Wednesday:

The market hit its 4th consecutive winning session in another lightly traded day. Upside moves were less prominent compared to recent sessions. The S&P 500, which closed above the 4,500 level, and the Nasdaq Composite finished near their highs of the day thanks to support from the mega cap space.

An initial drop in market rates following the weaker than expected economic data provided added support early on. Treasury yields climbed off their intraday lows, though.

Relative strength from the mega cap space was the biggest driver of index gains. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF ($MGK) rose 0.7% while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF ($RSP) rose 0.3%. The market-cap weighted S&P 500 closed up 0.4%.

Economic data for Wednesday included the MBA mortgage applications, the July Pending Home Sales report, the Q2 GDP second estimate, the ADP employment report, and the trade in goods report.

Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications grew 2.3%. The increase was due to the Refinance  Index increasing 3% and the Purchase Index increasing 2%. The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgage moved to 7.23%.

July Pending Home Sales grew 0.9%, beating -1.3% expectations and 0.4% prior reading. This is the 2nd consecutive monthly increase. The Northeast and Midwest posted monthly losses, while sales in the South and West grew. All 4 regions saw YoY declines in transactions.

August ADP Employment Change showed that job creation slowed, falling from 371,000 in July to 177,000 August & missing expectations of 200,000. The report showed that pay growth slowed for workers who changed jobs and those who stayed in their current positions. The ADP press release stated that “this month’s numbers are consistent with the pace of job creation before the pandemic.”

The advanced international trade in goods release showed that the trade deficit increased 2.6% to $91.2 billion in July. The increase of imports outpaced the increase of exports. Regarding inventories, the advance wholesale inventories were down 0.1% in July and the June percentage change was revised down from -0.5% to -0.7%. Advance retail inventories were up 0.3% in July and the June percentage change was revised down from 0.7% to 0.5%.

The Q2 GDP estimate was revised lower from 2.4% to 2.1%, whereas economists expected it to remain unchanged. The revision was due to downgrades in inventory investment & business spending on equipment & intellectual property products. The pace of growth remains above the Feds non-inflationary growth rate of approximately 1.8%. Despite that, the report fits the soft landing scenario; also, there were downward revisions to the inflation readings, which is something that will continue to drive the market’s belief that the Fed can refrain from another rate hike.

Thursday:

The market’s winning streak was broken on Thursday. The market had moved higher before upside momentum slowly dissipated. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both closed with a loss near their worst levels of the day.

In general, big moves were reserved for individual stocks with catalysts. Retailers Dollar General ($DG) and Five Below ($FIVE) sank after reporting quarterly results that featured below-consensus guidance. CrowdStrike ($CRWD) and Salesforce ($CRM), meanwhile, registered sizable gains after their earnings reports.

Economic data for the day included the weekly initial claims report and the July PCE reading.

Initial jobless claims fell by 4K to 228K for the week ending August 26. The 4-week moving average increased slightly to 237,500. Continuing claims increased 28,000 to 1,725,000 from the previous week. The 4-week moving average also increased slightly to 1,704,250. The key here is that initial claims, a leading indicator, continues to represent a tight labor market which goes hand-in-hand with an economy that is clearly not in a hard landing scenario.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE) increased 0.2% in July. Year-over-year, the index increased from 3.0% in June to 3.3% in July. Stripping out food and energy, Core PCE ticked up 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% YoY, while MoM change was 0.2%. Personal income increased 0.2%, down from 0.3% the prior month, and personal spending climbed to 0.8%, up from 0.6% the prior month. All of these readings were basically in line with expectations. The key here is uptick in YoY inflation readings, though it wasn’t horrendous by any means, it should catch the Fed’s eye as a basis for not cutting rates any time soon.

Friday:

Stocks closed out the 1st day of September on a mixed note. The 3 main indices closed with modest gains or losses while the Russell 2000 (+1.1%) outperformed. The S&P 500 kept a position above 4,500, reaching 4,501 at its low.

A jump in market rates and a sharp increase in oil prices acted as headwinds for the stock market. The 2-yr note yield rose 2 basis points, and fell 17 basis points this week, to 4.88%. The 10-yr note yield rose 8 basis points today, and fell 7 this week, to 4.17%.

Mega caps and growth stocks were relatively soft, reacting to the bump in rates and cooling off from a stronger showing earlier in the week. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth closed flat while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF ($RSP) logged a 0.4% gain and the market-cap weighted S&P 500 rose 0.2%. The Russell 3000 Value Index rose 0.6% versus a 0.1% gain in the Russell 3000 Growth Index.

Economic data for the day included the Employment Situation report, the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, and the ISM Manufacturing Index.

August Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 187K, higher than the expectations and prior readings. The prior reading was revised down to 157k from 187k, a large move down. Private payrolls came in at 179k. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% and prior 0.4%. The unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.8%. The key takeaway here is that the moderation in hourly earnings and uptick in unemployment are both good signs that Fed won’t be raising rates again.

The August S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.9, just 0.9 higher than July. Construction Spending was 0.7%, beating 0.6% expectations. The key takeaway from the report is that residential spending continues to be powered by new single-family construction to meet demand that cannot be satisfied through the existing home market.

August ISM Manufacturing Index moved up to 47.6%, beating the expected 46.7% and prior 46.4%. The key takeaway from the report is that manufacturing demand remains soft (below a reading of 50 is considered contractionary, yet conditions in the manufacturing sector appear to be slowly stabilizing.

That’s it for my recap! If you would like to see how I am building my dividend portfolio using my predictions/strategy written here, you can read about my buys in my weekly portfolio update on this link.

And if you like updates like this, follow my Twitter or my CommonStock page where I post updates on the economic data throughout the week. I have also started a Twitch Channel called Games N Gains! Every Thursday at 6PM MST I go live to hang out, play games, and chat with y’all about stocks, charts, fundamentals, and anything else you like! I hope to see you there!

Regards,

Dividend Dollars

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Earnings Economics Market Outlook Market Recap Market Update Stock Market

Stock Market Recap & Outlook (8/25/23) – Is The Market Shaking Off This Correction?

FILE - In this Dec. 1, 2020 file photo, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell listens during a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington. Federal Reserve officials were convinced last month that the U.S. economy and job growth had slowed as coronavirus cases surged across the country. They noted that the economy's outlook is heavily dependent on the course of the virus. (Al Drago/The New York Times via AP, Pool)

This weekly market recap is brought to you by Koyfin, a powerful analytical tool that I am proud to partner with. Their platform is entirely customizable for whatever data you want to look at including stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, currencies, economic data releases (one of my personal favorites used often for these posts), crypto, and even transcripts of company events! Click the link above to get a special offer only for Dividend Dollar readers or go give my product review a read if you’re interested!

Dividend Dollars’ Outlook & Opinion

Last week we leaned moderately bearish, which was a miss as $SPX currently sits at +0.82% for the week. The market neared the levels I was eyeing but didn’t fully get there. The chop up and down gave us a little bit a relief from the market correction that has been occurring for the whole month of august.

This was a light on the data front. New home sales and jobless claims came in better than expected while existing home sales, goods orders, and consumer sentiment came in lower than expected. Homebuilders are continuing to benefit from the strong demand for new home sales as existing home sales are stifled by this challenging resale market. Many sellers are unwilling to sell because they don’t want to lower their price, while buyers are unwilling to buy because prices and rates are multi-decade highs. Both sides seem to be waiting for rates to come down, though it’s uncertain when that will happen.

Interest rates this week moved higher a bit as the 10-year Treasury moved from 4.29% to a mid-week peak at 4.36%. As of this writing, it settled lower than the former at 4.23%. On Friday morning, Powell gave his speech at the Jackson Hole symposium where he said that it is the Fed’s job to bring inflation down to their 2% goal, which they are committed to. Although inflation has moved down and is very much a welcome relief, it is still too high, which suggests more rate hikes could be considered. There is a cumulative probability, per the CME FedWatch tool, of 63% chance of a hike within the next two meetings.

From a technical standpoint, the key levels we discussed last week are mostly still intact. Longer term resistance at 4,600 is obviously in play. Shorter term resistance around 4,460 was strong this week, we rejected down hard from that level on Thursday. That level also coincides closely with the 50-day SMA. We will need big strength from buyers to get back above that level before we hit new highs. Below here is the 0.618 fib level and 100-day SMA right around 4,310-4,320, this is the next level of support if we go there.

Next week we have home price, consumer confidence, and jolts job data on Tuesday, ADP employment, Q2 GDP, and pending home sales data on Wednesday, jobless claims and PCE on Thursday, and the monthly employment situation, construction spending, and ISM manufacturing index data on Friday.

Consumer sentiment indicators mostly improved this week. VIX open interest change, SPX open interest change, equity open interest change, VIX open interest put call ratio, and SPX open interest put call ratio all moved into more bullish readings. The Cboe VIX volume put call ratio and VIX futures moved into more bearish readings.

Last week, investors seemed to get a little too bearish in the near-term. Based on historical seasonality, which has a decent track record, that made the market ripe for a short-term bounce that we saw in the first half of this week. With a larger number of upgrades in the sentiment indicators than downgrades, an outlook of neutral to moderately bullish is what I am expecting next week.

Weekly Market Review

Monday: Stocks had a mixed showing in a low volume session where buy-the-dip action in the mega-caps led to the outperformance of the $QQQ and helped limit losses elsewhere. The major indices had been drifting lower in the early hours before bouncing off their lows with no specific catalyst and closing near their highs for the day.  

Treasury yields, which had been rising and keeping pressure on stocks, started to pullback from their highs around the same time that the stock market hit its lows for the day. The 2-yr note yield settled 8 basis points higher at 4.99%. The 10-yr note yield rose 9 basis points to 4.34%, which is its highest level since 2007. The 30-yr bond yield rose 8 basis points to 4.46%, hitting its highest level since 2011.  

Tesla ($TSLA) and NVIDIA ($NVDA) were top performers from the mega-cap space, up 7.3% and 8.5%, respectively. $NVDA, which reported earnings after the close on Wednesday, traded up after HSBC raised its price target to $780 from $600.  

Some anxiety for Fed Chair Powell’s speech Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium also contributed to the weakness in the Treasury market today after a Wall Street Journal article by Nick Timiraos discussed why the neutral rate may need to be higher.  

There was no economic data of note today.  

Tuesday: Stocks had a mixed showing in another low volume session that pivoted on Treasury movements. Relative strength from the mega cap space had been driving gains in the morning. The S&P 500 had been trading above 4,400 before slipping lower and then failing on retests. The indices ultimately closed  near their worst levels of the day.  

Weak bank stocks were a notable weight for the broader market after S&P downgraded the credit ratings of multiple banks on concerns of funding risks from rising rates and weaker profitability. Additionally, retailer Macy’s ($M) talked about weakening consumer credit conditions in its business, and that acknowledgment was another weight on the banks.  

Macy’s was down ~14%  following its earnings report and Dick’s Sporting Goods ($DKS) was another big loser after reporting earnings, down ~24%. Dick’s came up well shy of earnings estimates and attributed its disappointing profits and guidance to inventory shrink (i.e. theft). Lowe’s ($LOW) went against the grain, though, and posted a nice ~3% gain after its quarterly report.  

Homebuilders outperformed the broader market, boosted in part by an existing home sales report for July that continued to show a lean supply of homes for sale. The S&P 500 financials sector (-0.8%) saw the largest sector decline due to its weak bank components. The real estate sector (+0.3%), meanwhile, led the outperformers.  

Treasury yields fell overnight before nudging higher after the open. Yields ultimately settled below their highs of the day. The 2-yr note yield note rose 5 basis points to 5.04% and the 10-yr note yield fell 1 basis point to 4.33%.

Economic data for the day included only the existing home sales report for July. Existing home sales fell 2.2% MoM to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.07 million from an unrevised 4.16 million in June. This was also below the estimated reading of 4.15 million. Sales were down 16.6% from the same period a year ago.  

The key takeaway from the report is that the inventory of existing homes for sale remains tight and affordability continues to be impacted by rising prices and higher mortgage rates, all of which is also acting as moving deterrents for existing homeowners.    

Wednesday: Stocks had a strong showing, supported by a drop in rates and strong mega-caps. The indices all closed with gains ranging from 0.5% to 1.6%, although volume was still on the lighter side. Today’s upside moves brought the S&P 500 back above 4,400, which acted as an area of resistance yesterday.  

Market rates started to move lower overnight in response to a batch of soft August PMI data out of Europe. Treasuries extended their rally after the release of softening Manufacturing and Services PMI readings for the US. The 2-yr note yield fell 11 basis points to 4.93% and the 10-yr note yield fell 13 basis points to 4.20%.  

The market reflected fairly broad buying interest under the index surface. Advancers outpaced decliners by a 7-to-2 margin at the NYSE and a 2-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq. 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors logged a gain led by information technology (+1.9%), which was boosted by its mega cap components. The energy sector (-0.3%) was the lone holdout in negative territory by the close.  

Economic data for the day included the new residential home sales report, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI, and the MBA mortgage application index.  

The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index dropped -4.2%, down from the prior -0.8%. The refinance index dropped -3%. The MBA’s chief economist stated that “The ARM share of applications increased to 7.6Z%, the highest level in five months, and the number of ARM applications picked up by 4% last week.” It appears that some home buyers are willing to accept interest rate risk after the initial fixed period, indicating that buyers are expecting rate drops in the medium term.  

The preliminary August S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI reading came in at 47.0, down from the prior 49.0. The preliminary S&P Global US Services PMI came in at 51.0, down from the prior 52.3. The composite reading hit 50.4, a 6-month low and down from the prior 52.0. This latest reading signaled the weakest output since February as persistent challenges in manufacturing demand were accompanied with slower growth in the services sector.    

July New Home Sales came in at 714K, beating the expected 701k and prior 648k. The key takeaway from the report is that new home sales activity, which is measured on signed contracts, was driven by sales of more moderately priced homes as higher building costs crimped the supply of lower-priced homes while higher mortgage rates contributed to affordability pressures across the spectrum.  

Thursday: The indices closed with sizable losses on the heels of NVIDIA’s blowout earnings report that was filled with much better than expected Q3 guidance and a new $25 billion share buyback plan. Things looked different at the open, though, with many stocks building on yesterday’s gains. Mega-caps stocks rolled over quickly and never regained their opening momentum. Ultimately, the indices closed near their lows of the day.  

The disappointing price action after NVIDIA’s report likely caught many participants by surprise and became its own downside catalyst, which increased selling interest. Weak semiconductor stocks were another weight on the broader, falling prone to a sell-the-news reaction.  

Other notable laggards included Dow component Boeing ($BA) which said a new flaw found in the 737 MAX will slow deliveries in the near term, T-Mobile ($TM), which said it is going to cut approximately 7% of its staff, and Dollar Tree Stores ($DLTR) which disappointed with its Q3 outlook.  

Treasury yields settled slightly higher, keeping pressure on stocks, following another encouraging initial jobless claims report. The 2-yr note yield rose 8 basis points to 5.01% and the 10-yr note yield rose 4 basis points to 4.24%.  

Economic data for today included the initial jobless claims report and durable goods orders.  

Initial jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 230,000, under the expected 240,000, while continuing jobless claims decreased by 9,000 to 1.702 million. The leading indicator of initial claims is still leading the market to believe that the labor market remains tight, which is something that won’t escape the Fed’s eye.    

Durable goods orders fell 5.2% MoM in July to $285.9B, below the expected -4%. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased 0.5% MoM to $187.2B. The key takeaway from the report, other than July’s weakness was driven predominately by transportation, was that business spending occurred at a moderate pace, evidenced by the 0.1% increase in new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.  

Friday: The stock market finished the day in an upbeat manner that saw the indices settle near their best levels of the day, despite the low volume. The gains were put into question shortly after Fed Chair Powell gave his much anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. There were some efforts to spin that speech as being more hawkish than expected as the market retreated into negative territory, yet the speech didn’t contain any surprising revelations.  

Powell stuck by the Fed’s 2% inflation target and reiterated that the process of getting inflation back down to 2% still has a long way to go. He acknowledged that the Fed would raise rates again if it is appropriate. These are all things he said following the last FOMC meeting. Unsurprisingly, Powell also omitted any speak on rate cuts or their timing.  

The stock market regrouped and got back on a winning track. It did so with the help of renewed buying interest in the mega-cap stocks and some generally broad-based buying interest that left all 11 S&P 500 sectors in positive territory by the closing bell.  

Boeing ($BA) was the best-performing component in the $DIA one day after being the worst performing component in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The turnaround was helped by a Bloombergreport that Boeing is getting ready to resume deliveries of its 737 MAX to China.  

The Treasury market had its own ups and downs as the 2-yr note yield went as high as 5.10% before settling at 5.05%, up 4 basis points from yesterday’s settlement. The 10-yr note yield touched 4.27% soon after Fed Chair Powell’s speech but settled the day unchanged at 4.24%. The low for the S&P 500 today coincided roughly with the 10-yr note yield hitting its high for the day.  

Economic data for the day included only the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reading for August. It came in at 69.5 versus the preliminary reading of 71.2. The final reading for July was 71.6, which marked the highest level since October 2021. In the same period a year ago, the index was at 58.2. The key to the report is that if consumers think the rapid improvements seen in the economy in the past three months have moderated, then they’ll be more tentative about the outlook ahead.

That’s it for my recap! If you would like to see how I am building my dividend portfolio using my predictions/strategy written here, you can read about my buys in my weekly portfolio update on this link.

And if you like updates like this, follow my Twitter or my CommonStock page where I post updates on the economic data throughout the week. I have also started a Twitch Channel called Games N Gains! Every Thursday at 6PM MST I go live to hang out, play games, and chat with y’all about stocks, charts, fundamentals, and anything else you like! I hope to see you there!

Regards, Dividend Dollars

Categories
Earnings Economics Market Outlook Market Recap Market Update Stock Market

Stock Market Recap & Outlook (7/28/23) – The Market That Can’t Be Shaken

This weekly market recap is brought to you by Koyfin, a powerful analytical tool that I am proud to partner with. Their platform is entirely customizable for whatever data you want to look at including stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, currencies, economic data releases (one of my personal favorites used often for these posts), crypto, and even transcripts of company events! Click the link above to get a special offer only for Dividend Dollar readers or go give my product review a read if you’re interested!

Dividend Dollars’ Outlook & Opinion

Last week’s call of moderately bullish to neutral was pretty spot on. The market was mostly bullish for the week, except for the steep sell-off on Thursday that nearly brought $SPY back to break even for the week.

Earnings season has reached its peak this week, with many big tech names reporting. 262 of the 500 S&P companies have reported, roughly 81% have beat EPS expectations and 58% beat sales expectations. The theme for this earnings season seems to be “better than feared” as YoY growth in earnings is down -1.8% versus an expected -6.8%. Revenues are actually 2.0% higher YoY.

This week was heavy with economic data, most of which either exceeded or were close to expectations. Initial Jobless Claims came in low, with its smallest reading since February of 2018. The first estimate for Q2 GDP came in at +2.4%, well above most estimates. The Q2 GDP price index (a figure that is similar to CPI) helped show the impact of continued inflation. Inflation is still weighing on nominal GDP growth, which came in at +4.6% QoQ, but when adjusting for inflation we end up with only +2.4% real GDP. Plus we had the Fed rate hike decision on Wednesday, which resulted in another 25 bps hike.

For the technical analysis this week, let’s remind ourselves some of what we said last week. Part of that was I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pullback at some point, and Thursday looked as if it was going to be beginning of that pullback. Technical resistance at the 4,600 level and a Treasury yield spike caused by the Bank of Japan announcing yield curve control policies, triggered the sharp fall that day. However, also like I said before, bullish momentum is strong, and we got a terrific bounce back on Friday.

The run up this week had prices get close to the top of the green ascending channel in the above chart. Thursday brought us a strong rejection, but prices recovered very well on Friday. Prior to the Thursday flush, prices pushed into 4,580 – 4,630 range that we called out last week as the next level of resistance, that range is the blue channel in the below chart. What I really like to see about this flush is the fact that prices came back down perfectly to the 0.786 fib level near 4,535 and bounced perfectly. That tells me that the support in that area has solidified and is strong, especially if it stopped a rug pull candle like Thursday.

Sentiment indicators mostly improved this week. Vix open interest change, VIX open interest put call ratio, equity volume put call ratio, and vix futures all improved to bullish/moderately bullish levels. ETF open interest changes and indices volume put call ratios both worsened to moderately bearish levels.

Overall, economic data was decent this week. The economy is still growing at a stable pace, labor markets are still strong, and consumers are still spending. The Fed has removed recessions from their forecasts. All these things, plus a decent earnings season, and a mild week for economic data next week may limit the downside risk. However, technical resistance here could prove to be strong. For that reason, I’m keeping my outlook as moderately bullish to neutral, a pullback seems less likely next week than it was this week, but I think the market still feels one creeping around the corner.

Weekly Market Review

Monday: Markets inched higher on Monday as the $DIA hit its 11th consecutive day of gains. There was low volume on the day where winners outpaced losers.

Treasuries started the day with gains after discouraging PMI readings came out of the eurozone. However, the US PMIs reading were a little better with mixed results. We showed improvements in manufacturing while services activity slowed.

Yields ended up closing near their highs for the day as investors digested an okay 2-year note auction and prepped for the $43B 5-year note auction on Tuesday. The 2-year yield rose to 4.88% and the 10-year yield rose to 3.86% on the day.

The flash July reading of the S&P CoreLogic Manufacturing PMI rose more than expected to a reading of 49.0, up from 46.3. A reading below 50 represents contraction in the sector, so we are trending in a direction that will get us out of that concerning area. The Services PMI fell to a reading of 52.4, a slightly bigger decline than expected.

Tuesday: The indices closed with gains today after the S&P 500 and the DIA hit new 52-week highs. The DJIA also hit its 12th straight day of wins. Mega cap strength helped to boost this performance.

Blue chips dominated the earnings calendar in yesterday’s after-hours and today’s early-hours. Most received positive reactions and added support for the market. $PKG, $MMM, $DOW, $GE, $NUE, and $SHW were among the standouts. The July Consumer Confidence report also added to the market support as it came in at the highest reading since July 2021.

The industrial sector was the laggard as it was heavily weighed down by $RTX, who lowered the FCF guidance for the year due to a need to inspect a portion of the PW1100G-JM engine fleet after finding a powdered metal used in production had a contaminant. In other corporate news, $UPS and the International Brotherhood of Teamsters reached a 5-year collective bargaining agreement and $BANC is in discussions to buy $PACW.

Economic data for the day included the FHFA housing price index, the S&P Case-Shiller home price index, and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index.

The FHFA index rose +0.7% MoM in May following a +0.7% increase April. The Case-Shiller 20-city composite index fell -1.7% YoY in May compared to an expected -1.9% and following a -1.7% move in April.

   

The consumer confidence index jumped to 117 in July, beating an expected 11.1.5 and a prior 110.1 in June. This time last year the index was at 95.3. The uptick in confidence was driven by a pickup in views about current conditions and the outlook, which are an offshoot of better feelings about inflation falling and labor market resilience.

Wednesday: Wednesday was a bit mixed as investors reacted to a heavy batch of earnings, the latest Fed meeting, and Powell’s commentary. The reaction to the 25 basis point rate hike was fairly quite as most of us looked forward to Powell’s press conference. His position was mainly one of none-commitment to any direction for the next move.  

Expectations for a second hike at any of the next meetings this year did not really change. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a second hike for each of the following meetings are all under 30%.

For earnings, $GOOG and $MSFT had the largest influence as there were some mixed receptions, same with $BA, $KO, $T, and $V. The broader market held up fairly well with a 0.2% gain on the $RSP while the major indices closed closer to flat.

Economic data for the day included the MBA Mortgage Applications Index and the New Home Sales data.

Mortgage applications fell by -1.8% this week, with a surprise drop in purchase applications of -3%. Refinancing activity remained flat.

New home sales fell by -2.5% MoM in June to an annual rate of 697,000 units. This is compared to an expected 722,000 and a prior reading of 715,000 in May. On a YoY basis, new home sales were up 23.8%. New home sales activity, which is measured in signed contracts, was pressured in June by rising mortgage rates that created affordability pressures.

Thursday: Thursday started in full rally mode. $META had terrific gains after its pleasing earnings report and outlook, pushing further buying interest in mega caps.

Stocks started to roll over in the afternoon due to a number of catalysts. One was an announcement that the Bank of Japan is discussing possible changes to its yield curve control policy at their Friday meeting. This created concerns for a possible unwinding of carry trades that have been supportive of asset prices.

That news hit around the same time that the $35B 7-year note auction was met with lackluster demand. Coincidentally, the S&P 500 hit resistance at the test of the 4,600 level. This all occurred around the same time and caused a meaningful rejection as money was taken off the table.

At the NYSE, losers were beating winners by a 7-to-2 margin and a 5-to-2 margin at the Nasdaq. Then, the ECB followed the FOMC with their own 25 basis point hike. However, language on the decision drove some speculation that they may be close to done with raising rates.  

Economic data for the day included the initial jobless claims report, the advanced Q2 GDP report, durable goods orders, the advanced international trade in goods report, and the pending home sales report.  

Initial jobless claims for the week of July 22nd fell by 7,000 to 221,000, better than the expected 233,000. This is the lowest level seen since February. Continuing claims for the week of July 15th fell by 59,000 to 1.69M, also the lowest level since February. The low level of initial claims, a leading indicator, reflects continued job demand strength, so much so that employers are reluctant to give up employees in a tight labor market.

The Advanced Q2 GDP report showed that real GDP grew at an annual rate of +2.4%, beating an expected +1.6% and a prior +2.0% in Q1. Consumer spending slowed to an annual rate of +1.6%, down from a +4.2% in Q1. The GDP Price Deflator dropped to +2.2% from a prior +4.1%. The economy seems to be a long way away from a recession in Q2.

June durable goods orders grew +4.7% MoM in June, compared to an expected +1.0% and a prior +2.0% in May. Excluding transportation, orders grew +0.6% MoM, beating the expected +0.2% but just short of the prior +0.7% in May. New orders were up across most durable goods categories, reflecting resilient demand for an economy that refuses to stop growing.

The June Advanced International Trade in Goods deficit narrowed to $87.1B from $91.1B. Advanced whole sale inventories fell by -0.3% and advanced retail inventories grew by +0.7%.

Pending home sales grew by +0.3% in June, the first gain since February. This figure was expected to fall by -0.5%.

Friday: The market bounced back from Thursday’s sell off, sticking to the winning play of buying weakness. Mega caps favored in that respect, hitting nice gains and propping up the indices. Many other stocks participated in the rally though.

Notable stocks that report earnings included $PG, $INTC, and $ROKU. Also, the personal income and spending report was supportive of a soft landing narrative, which was another source of support. The Bank of Japan surprised markets when it voted to manage its yield curve control policy with more flexibility, saying it will maintain a 0.5% target rate while also offering to purchase 10-year JGBs at 1%. The yen rallied on the news but lost steam as the dollar rallied back.

Economic data for the day included the Personal Income report, the Q2 Employment Cost Index, and the July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Personal incomes grew by +0.3% MoM in June, compared to an expected +0.5% and +0.5% prior reading. Personal spending grew +0.5% MoM, compared to an expected +0.3% and prior +0.2% in May. The PCE Price Index and Core PCE were both up +0.2%, in line with expectations. The takeaway form this report is a combination of solid spending and ongoing disinflation.

The Q2 employment cost index showed compensations increase by +1.0% for the three month period ending in June. This is compared to an expected +1.1% and a +1.2% prior reading for March. The key here is that we are seeing a deceleration in employment costs, which should be comforting for the market and the Fed as a reassurance that a price/wage spiral is not occurring.

The July Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 71.6, compared to an expected 72.6 and prior reading at 64.4. Last July the reading was at 51.5, putting us at a vast improvement in just a year. Outlooks have greatly improved with the slowdown in inflation and the ongoing stability of the labor market.

That’s it for my recap! If you would like to see how I am building my dividend portfolio using my predictions/strategy written here, you can read about my buys in my weekly portfolio update on this link.

And if you like updates like this, follow my Twitter or my CommonStock page where I post updates on the economic data throughout the week. I have also started a Twitch Channel called Games N Gains! Every Thursday at 6PM MST I go live to hang out, play games, and chat with y’all about stocks, charts, fundamentals, and anything else you like! I hope to see you in there!

Regards,

Dividend Dollars

Categories
Earnings Economics Market Outlook Market Recap Market Update

Stock Market Recap & Outlook (7/14/23) – A Strong Week to Lead Into Earnings Season

This weekly market recap is brought to you by Koyfin, a powerful analytical tool that I am proud to partner with. Their platform is entirely customizable for whatever data you want to look at including stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, currencies, economic data releases (one of my personal favorites used often for these posts), crypto, and even transcripts of company events! Click the link above to get a special offer only for Dividend Dollar readers or go give my product review a read if you’re interested!

Dividend Dollars’ Outlook & Opinion

Last week, I gave a neutral outlook saying to watch my red channel in the chart below for a breakout in either direction. We got the breakout to the upside this week and closed comfortable above it at 4,505 for SPX.

The strength was evident this week. Not only did we have better than expected CPI, PPI, sentiment, and job claims readings, but earnings season also kicked off with a bang! About 6% of the S&P 500 companies have reported, with 82% beating their EPS estimates and 64% beating their revenue estimates.

The two key inflation reports, CPI and PPI, both showed significant easing, though they are still above the 2% target. The CPI fell to +3% year over year compared to the +4% that was seen in May. This beat the 3.1% expectation. The PPI figure came in at just +0.1%, significantly lower than the +1.1% reading in the prior month. Both have been falling steadily for 12 consecutive months.

The lower inflation numbers triggered another rally in stocks this week. The SPC closed a new high for this bull market on Wednesday at 4,510. Based on this new high, the -10% correction line moves up to 4,059 and the -20% bear market line moves up to 3,608.

Again, SPX is reaching a technically overbought area based on the RSI, however it’s difficult to find a future catalyst that could cause any modest pullback. The bulls seem fully in control again. Price action got us to barely touch the 0.786 fib level at 4,528. This level may serve as a potential spot of resistance, but if its able to be cleared, it seems likely that there could be a path to reaching all-time highs again.

There were more sentiment indicator upgrades than downgrades this week. SPX open interest change, SPX OI put call ratio, VIX VPCR, and VIX levels in general improved while equity only equity OI change was slightly worse. With inflation coming down faster than expected, early earnings doing well, high consumer optimism, and relatively mild economics schedule for next week, my outlook for next week fairly bullish. There may be hesitancy in price action as we get closer to the next Fed meeting, but aside from that, I am expecting mostly bullishness.

Weekly Market Review

Summary: The market had a very good week with undeniable bias. CPI, PPI, Import-Index, and employment reports all corroborated the growing notion that the economy will avoid a hard landing.

The CPI report was the headliner for the week with a smaller than expected 0.2% increase. Treasury yields rushed down, and stock prices jumped higher. The 2 year note yield fell 21 basis points to 4.73% this week while the 10 year note fell 23 basis points to 3.82%.

The broader market overcame a weak start for the mega caps on Monday, which aligned with Nasdaq’s announcement that there will be a special rebalancing of the Nasdaq 100 on 7/24/23 to address overconcentration. This will be the first rebalancing since 2011. Mega caps picked up pace throughout the week and outperformed.

All 11 of the S&P 500 sectors made gains this week that ranged from 3.8% for communications (YAY $XLC) to 0.8% for energy. Q2 earnings season went underway and didn’t slow progress in any of the sectors. Delta Airlines, PepsiCo, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and UnitedHealth all beat expectations.

Speaking of expectation, the fed funds futures market seemed to be friendly with the CPI report on Wednesday and seemed to cap out prospects of any additional rate hikes after the July meeting. There is a 93% chance of a 25 basis point hike in July, yet the odds of a second hike in the following meetings through the end of the year sit at11%, 53%, and 19.2% according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Several members of the Fed aren’t ready to shut out the prospects of future hikes, regardless the odds show a one and done approach moving forward.

That perspective had some tangible effects on the USD and other central banks. The ECB and BOE are expected to have further to go with their rate hike efforts. The USD index dropped by 2.4%. This move and the soft-landing view led to a jump in commodity prices this week including oil and copper (let’s go $COPX) which rose despite weaker data out of China that sparked calls for policy stimulus.

Monday: We had a strong start to the week. Even though $SPY was only up 0.2%, the broad-based $RSP was up 0.9% and gainers beat losers 2 to 1. Mega caps kept the major indices down as they were slow to start with $AAPL, $GOOG, and $MSFT registering losses.

Their losses followed the news that there will be special rebalance of the Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ) due to concerns of over concentration. This will occur before the open on July 24th.

Even with lagging mega caps, the broader market did well. Small caps, banks, energy, and chips all outperformed.

Economic data for the day was only the May Wholesale Inventories Report. It came in at 0.0% compared to an expected -0.1%. Inventory to sales ratios grew to 1.41 from 1.30.

Tuesday: The market had another good day. Again, mega caps lagged and the broader market performed. However, by mid-day mega caps started to gain momentum and contribute.

There was strong positive bias in the price action as gainers beat loses 3 to 1 at NYSE and 2 to 1 at Nasdaq. Volume was a little low, but that didn’t stop $SPY from gaining 0.7%.

Economic data for the day was only the NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey. Results rose to 91, up from 89.4. It was the highest level in 7 months and the biggest monthly gain since August 2022. Sales expectations were higher though inflation and labor shortages continue to be an issue for small businesses.

Wednesday: Today, the market reacted positively to the CPI reading, leading $SPY and $QQQ to hit new 52-week highs. They pulled back before the close, but still finished with decent gains.

Treasury yields took a plunge in response to the data, acting as another support factor for the market. Expectations for further rate hikes after the July meeting declined in response to the report.

Wednesday’s rally was broad, but mega caps really shined as they had been lagging in the prior few sessions.

The Consumer Price Index for June was up 0.2% MoM, beating the expected 0.3%. Shelter accounted for 70% of the increase. Core CPI was also up 0.2% MoM, again beating the 0.3% expectation. This was the smallest MoM change since August 2021. On a YoY basis, CPI slowed to 3% from 4% in May, marking the smallest increase since March 2021. Core CPI closed to 4.7% from 5.3%. There is clear evidence of promising disinflation for both total and core CPI that should temper worries about the Fed raising rates beyond its July meeting. Even a hike in July seems to be unnecessary in my opinion.      

Thursday: Thursday was another strong day as the S&P closed above 4,500 and Nasdaq Composite settled near its high of the day. Mega caps boosted the indices, but many stocks participated in the rally. The positive was driven by the belief that the economy can pull off a soft landing and that the Fed is nearing the end of rate hikes.

That belief was supported by the better than expected PPI report after yesterday’s CPI report. Positive sentiment was also helped by some Q2 earnings surprises and guidance from $DAL, $PEP, and the $XOM acquisition news. Bank stocks also participated in the rally in anticipation of tomorrow’s earning reports from $JPM, $WFC, and $C, pushing banking ETFs to outperform on the day.

Economic data included the Producer Price Index and initial jobless claims.

The PPI for final demand increased 0.1% MoM, lower than the expected 0.2%. Core PPI also increased 0.1% MoM, beating the expected 0.2%. On a YoY basis, PPI was up just 0.1% while core PPI was up 2.4%. Wholesale inflation pressures are clearly moderating, which should be a boon for profit margins for companies able to retain pricing power. Strong progress in PPI is usually an indicator of further progress on CPI, as the former leads into the latter.

Initial jobless claims for the week fell by 12k to 237k, beating the expected 247k. Continuing claims grew by 11k to 1.729M. Initial jobless claims continue to come in at well below any levels seen in prior recessions. This reflects a continue strong state for the labor market and is supportive of consumer spending growth and a soft landing.

Friday: There was good earnings news for the day from $UNH, $V, $JPM, and $WFC. Good economic news also rolled in from consumer sentiment and import/export prices. Also, positive rating actions for $MSFT and $NVDA occurred.

Despite all the positivity, the market had a meh day. Profit taking seemed to be occurring at the end of the big run this week. 8 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed with a loss. Decliners beat advancers by 3 to 1 on the NYSE and 2 to 1 at the Nasdaq.

Economic data for the day included the July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Import Export Price Report.

The consumer sentiment index came in at 72.6, strongly beating the expected 65.6 and the prior 64.4. This time last year, the index sat at 51.5, nearly a 40% improvement. The takeaway here is that sentiment about the economy has improved with the slowdown of inflation and the ongoing stability in the workforce.

For June, import prices fell 0.2% in June and prices were down 6.1% YoY, the largest annual decrease since May 2020. Excluding fuel, import prices were down 0.4% for the month and 1.4% YoY. Export prices dropped 0.9% for the month and 12.0% YoY, the biggest annual decline EVER recorded.

That’s it for my recap! If you would like to see how I am building my dividend portfolio using my predictions/strategy written here, you can read about my buys in my weekly portfolio update on this link.

And if you like updates like this, follow my Twitter or my CommonStock page where I post updates on the economic data throughout the week. I have also started a Twitch Channel called Games N Gains! Every Thursday at 6PM MST I go live to hang out, play games, and chat with y’all about stocks, charts, fundamentals, and anything else you like! I hope to see you in there!

Regards,

Dividend Dollars

Categories
Economics Market Update Stock Market

Stock Market Week in Review (12/4/22) – Powell Rally

This weekly market recap is brought to you by Koyfin, a powerful analytical tool that I am proud to partner with. Their platform is entirely customizable for whatever data you want to look at including stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, currencies, economic data releases (one of my personal favorites used often for these posts), crypto, and even transcripts of company events! Click the link above to get a special offer only for Dividend Dollar readers or go give my product review a read if you’re interested!

Weekly Review

The market seemed to be in a turkey coma as there wasn’t much action in the first half of the week. The market was choppy while waiting for Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Wednesday and the key economic data to follow.

The market liked what it heard in Mr. Powell’s speech and things took off in a big way on Wednesday off of his hints that the Fed may slow the pace of rate hikes.

Some will argue that he actually loosened the screws a bit. I would argue he didn’t even bring his toolbox. The market, which was waiting for a to be hit like a nail by a hammer, was relieved when he did not.

This became a rally catalyst that caused some short-covering and some chasing action as the S&P 500 broke above key resistance at its 200-day moving average.

Powell’s actual speech repeated just about everything he said following the November FOMC meeting. Some added attention was paid to his summation that “the ultimate level of interest rates will be somewhat higher than previously expected” versus the original contention that “the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected.”

Mr. Powell’s talk (and tone) presumably weakened the fear of another 75-basis point rate hike. Granted the fed funds rate is still going higher from current levels, but market participants can smell a peak in the policy rate around 5.00% in the first half of next year. If the FOMC elects to raise the target range by 50 basis points at the December meeting, the target range will be 4.25-4.50%.

On Thursday, market participants received the October Personal Income and Spending Report, which favored the “smaller” rate hike at the same time it favored a soft landing possibility.

Personal income increased 0.7% month-over-month in October and personal spending jumped 0.8%. The PCE Price Index was up 0.3% month-over-month and the core-PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2%.

On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Price Index was up 6.0%, versus 6.3% in September, and the core-PCE Price Index was up 5.0%, versus 5.2% in September.

The big rally effort slowed as market participants contended with the notion that the upside moves might have been an overreaction and that the growth environment is going to be challenging given the past rate hikes and the rate hikes that are yet to come.

A 49.0% reading for the November ISM Manufacturing Index, which is the first sub-50% reading (the dividing line between expansion and contraction) since May 2020, hurt some of the rebound enthusiasm.

The November employment report on Friday also tested the rally. Nonfarm payroll growth was higher than expected, the unemployment rate held near a 50-year low of 3.7%, and average hourly earnings increased at a robust 0.6% month-over-month, leaving them up 5.1% year-over-year.

The report itself was good news from an economic standpoint, yet the market saw it as bad news as it gives more room for the Fed to slow the economy with rate hikes. The report signals higher for longer with respect to the target range for the fed funds rate.

The initial retreat following the employment report saw the S&P 500 breach its 200-day moving average, but by Friday’s close the index reclaimed a position above that level. All in all, this week was a win for the bulls given that the market showed nice resilience to selling efforts and the S&P 500 held the line at that key technical level, next is the downward trend line 👀

8 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed with a gain on the week. Communication services and consumer discretionary enjoyed the biggest gains. Energy, utilities, and financials were the lone sectors in the red by the end of the week.

In the Treasury market, there were big down swings predicated on the thinking that maybe the Fed won’t have to raise rates as high as feared. The continued inversion along the yield curve reflects the festering concerns about the Fed raising rates into a weakening economy and inviting a recession. The 2-yr note yield fell 19 basis points to 4.29% and the 10-yr note yield fell 18 basis points to 3.51%.

Dividend Dollars’ Opinion

That’s it for the recap. Now for my opinion!

As I stated last week, we just barely broke above the 200-day EMA. We opened this week below it and would have finished there if the market hadn’t rallied so hard off of Powell’s speech. I even called that we could gap fill to the 4,080 area, and we did!

I’m not trying to make a habit out of predicting things, just simply share with you what I’m noticing. And I’m noticing that an end of year rally could push us slightly higher to the mother of all trendline’s. The red line in my chart below has been rejected every time since ATHs.

We could very easily stay fighting for that trend line through the end of the year before a significant breakout happens. But when it does happen, the direction is anybody’s guess. My money is on down.

Here’s why: what did Powell say on Wednesday that warranted a 3% surge on the S&P? Signals of slowing rate hikes are nice… but the probability of a 50-point rate hike in December has not changed. The CME Fedwatch tool showed a 75% probability of a 50-point hike last week. The probabilities for a smaller hike in the February meeting were fairly unchanged as well.

People all over are anticipating a “Fed Pivot”. But the Fed is far from pivoting. A Fed Pivot happens when the Fed reverses their monetary policy stance and occurs when the underlying economy has changed to such a degree that the Fed can no longer maintain its policy.

What on Wednesday suggested that this was the case? We are still a ways away from the peak rate and even then we will be at that rate for sometime before a rate cut is imminent. So why did the market bounce as it did following the speech?

The main reason is that expectations were low. We expected him to stay hawkish, instead we got optimistic. To me, playing the expectations game is silly. Rates are rising, and they will be staying there for a while. This will eat at companies’ earnings and sooner or later will be reflected in stock prices.

Be ready for deals, the technical indicators say a dip is coming. Worse yet, a recession is still not out of the picture.

I think that inflation is still a larger problem than the market anticipates. We have seen the market move higher on “better-than-expected” inflation readings where inflation is still over 7% and CPI has yet to peak.

The Fed may lessen the size of the rate hikes, but we are a long way away from ever having rates decreased. Till then, the market is at risk of entering a very serious recession.

The Fed is trying to engineer a soft-landing and so far they have done a great job of it.

However, the longer rates stay high, the closer we may get to seeing the Fed’s planned economic slow down go too far. GDP, employment, real incomes, etc. These things will start to waiver, earnings will start to miss, and the market will start to look quite overbought at these levels which will kick off some serious selling and capitulation.

Because of this, I am short with a position in $SDS and $SPXS and am holding more cash than normal. The short is only 2% of my portfolio and the cash is 10%. I’ll be adding to this short and cash position through to the end of the year if we remain trending up, but I think we are getting closer to a flip

I constantly make moves in my portfolio according to this thesis. You can read about these moves in my weekly portfolio update here.

And if you like updates like this, follow my Twitter or my CommonStock page where I post updates on the economic data throughout the week.

Regards,

Dividend Dollars