Tag: Weekly Market Outlook

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Stock Market Recap & Outlook (9/1/23) – Lackluster Data is Good for Rates

This weekly market recap is brought to you by Koyfin, a powerful analytical tool that I am proud to partner with. Their platform is entirely customizable for whatever data you want to look at including stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, currencies, economic data releases (one of my personal favorites used often for these posts), crypto, and even transcripts of company events! Click the link above to get a special offer only for Dividend Dollar readers or go give my product review a read if you’re interested!

Dividend Dollars’ Outlook & Opinion

Last week’s call of neutral to moderately bullish was a W as all the major indices are sitting at +1.4% or higher for the week. The moves higher this week we’re largely due to some worse than expected economic data releases. Though it sounds counterintuitive, the miss on Q2 GDP and JOLTS/ADP employment data had the market rethink their expectations for the Fed and Treasury yields, which caused this week’s bullishness.

Nonfarm payrolls had a negative revision to the past two months, average hourly earnings rose less than the estimate, and the unemployment rate rose higher than the estimate. The Fed has been closely watching the labor market, and this minor loss of strength shifted Fed rate forecasts more in favor of rate pauses rather than rate hikes. See the charts below from the CME FedWatch tool.

The odds of a pause in the September meeting increased from 80% to 93% this week, this would keep the rate at 525-550. The odds of keeping the 525-550 rate in the November meeting increased from 44% to 62%. The odds of keeping the 525-550 rate in the December meeting increased from 44% to 60%. These all suggest a higher likelihood of a dovish Fed for the rest of the year. Subsequently, treasury yields slid lower on this sentiment, helping stocks to edge higher.

From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 broke above the technical 4,450 level we have been watching. It ran higher with strength on Tuesday as the JOLTS data caused a lower reaction to yields, reclaiming the 50 day SMA in the process. The market pushed higher for the rest of the week, with less tenacity, and closed right under the 0.785 fib level. That level and July’s high of 4,600 will be the next areas of resistance, while the 50-day SMA and 4,450 are now our support levels under here.

A push higher would be greatly helped by a continued move down in the 10-year yield. Yields have pulled back a bit since the high hit on August 22nd, the bad news is that the rising channel is still intact. If the rate bounces higher off of this level, selling pressure will make it difficult for equities to push higher.

Overall, this was a good week. Pending home sales, initial jobless claims, personal spending, PMI, ISM, and construction spending all beat their estimates. PCE and core PCE were in line with theirs. Consumer confidence, JOLTS, HPI, ADP employment change, Q2 GDP, and unemployment all were worse than their estimates.

Next week brings us factory orders on Tuesday, the Fed’s Beige book, ISM, MBA mortgage, and trade balance data on Wednesday, claims and productivity on Thursday, and consumer credit on Friday. None of these will have too much influence on the market, but focus should be on the Beige Book and employment data. With bonds looking likely to be the driver in the market next week, I’m keeping my outlook of Neutral to Moderately Bullish for the week ahead.

Weekly Market Review

Monday:

Stocks started the last week of August on an upbeat note. The major indices closed near their best levels of the day on extremely light NYSE volume. The positive bias was partially fueled by carryover upside momentum from Friday’s rebound effort.

The indices were choppy as a result of fickle price action in the mega cap stocks, but they never slipped into negative territory due to broad buying. NVIDIA ($NVDA) had been down as much as 2.5% at its low of the day, but closed with a 1.8% gain.

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF ($MGK) rose 0.7%, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF ($RSP) rose 0.8%, and the market-cap weighted S&P 500 rose 0.6%.

3M ($MMM) was a standout winner following reports that the company is nearing a $5.5 billion settlement in the military earplugs case.

There was no economic data of note for Monday.

Tuesday:

It was another strong day for stocks on light volume. A drop in rates provided the positive catalyst for stocks. The S&P 500 climbed above its 50-day moving average after the open and closed just a whisker shy of the 4,500 level. All major indices closed near their highs of the day.

Treasury yields dropped following the release of the July JOLTS Report and August Consumer Confidence Index. Both of those reports were weaker than expected, which is a good thing in the market’s eyes as it relates to Fed policy.

Mega caps and other growth stocks led the upside charge, reacting positively to the drop in market rates. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF ($MGK) jumped 2.0% and the Russell 3000 Growth Index rose 1.9%.

A gain in Best Buy ($BBY) following its earnings results and outlook provided an additional boost to the consumer discretionary sector.

Economic data for the day included the June S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the August Consumer Confidence Report, and the July JOLTS job report.

The June Home Price Index composite moved lower at -1.2% YoY, beating the consensus of 0.9%. Both the 10-City & 20-City Composite increased 0.9% MoM. Among the 20 cities, Chicago, Cleveland, and New York posted the highest YoY gains at 4.2%, 4.1%, and 3.4%, while San Francisco and Seattle posted the worst at -9.7% and -8.8%.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 106.1 in August, down from 114.0 in July, wiping the gains from June and July. The decline is due to the Present Situation Index falling from 153.0 to 144.8 and the Expectations Index falling from 88.0 to 80.2. Consumers appear to be concerned about rising prices, for groceries and gasoline in particular. Expectations of 80 and lower have historically signaled a recession within the next year. The key takeaway from the report is that receding optimism about employment conditions negatively affected consumers’ view of the present situation and outlook.

The JOLTS jobs report showed lower openings in July, down 338,000 to 8.8 million, with decreases coming primarily from professional/business services, health care/social assistance, & state/federal government. Increases came from information and transportation, warehousing, & utilities.

Wednesday:

The market hit its 4th consecutive winning session in another lightly traded day. Upside moves were less prominent compared to recent sessions. The S&P 500, which closed above the 4,500 level, and the Nasdaq Composite finished near their highs of the day thanks to support from the mega cap space.

An initial drop in market rates following the weaker than expected economic data provided added support early on. Treasury yields climbed off their intraday lows, though.

Relative strength from the mega cap space was the biggest driver of index gains. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF ($MGK) rose 0.7% while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF ($RSP) rose 0.3%. The market-cap weighted S&P 500 closed up 0.4%.

Economic data for Wednesday included the MBA mortgage applications, the July Pending Home Sales report, the Q2 GDP second estimate, the ADP employment report, and the trade in goods report.

Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications grew 2.3%. The increase was due to the Refinance  Index increasing 3% and the Purchase Index increasing 2%. The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgage moved to 7.23%.

July Pending Home Sales grew 0.9%, beating -1.3% expectations and 0.4% prior reading. This is the 2nd consecutive monthly increase. The Northeast and Midwest posted monthly losses, while sales in the South and West grew. All 4 regions saw YoY declines in transactions.

August ADP Employment Change showed that job creation slowed, falling from 371,000 in July to 177,000 August & missing expectations of 200,000. The report showed that pay growth slowed for workers who changed jobs and those who stayed in their current positions. The ADP press release stated that “this month’s numbers are consistent with the pace of job creation before the pandemic.”

The advanced international trade in goods release showed that the trade deficit increased 2.6% to $91.2 billion in July. The increase of imports outpaced the increase of exports. Regarding inventories, the advance wholesale inventories were down 0.1% in July and the June percentage change was revised down from -0.5% to -0.7%. Advance retail inventories were up 0.3% in July and the June percentage change was revised down from 0.7% to 0.5%.

The Q2 GDP estimate was revised lower from 2.4% to 2.1%, whereas economists expected it to remain unchanged. The revision was due to downgrades in inventory investment & business spending on equipment & intellectual property products. The pace of growth remains above the Feds non-inflationary growth rate of approximately 1.8%. Despite that, the report fits the soft landing scenario; also, there were downward revisions to the inflation readings, which is something that will continue to drive the market’s belief that the Fed can refrain from another rate hike.

Thursday:

The market’s winning streak was broken on Thursday. The market had moved higher before upside momentum slowly dissipated. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both closed with a loss near their worst levels of the day.

In general, big moves were reserved for individual stocks with catalysts. Retailers Dollar General ($DG) and Five Below ($FIVE) sank after reporting quarterly results that featured below-consensus guidance. CrowdStrike ($CRWD) and Salesforce ($CRM), meanwhile, registered sizable gains after their earnings reports.

Economic data for the day included the weekly initial claims report and the July PCE reading.

Initial jobless claims fell by 4K to 228K for the week ending August 26. The 4-week moving average increased slightly to 237,500. Continuing claims increased 28,000 to 1,725,000 from the previous week. The 4-week moving average also increased slightly to 1,704,250. The key here is that initial claims, a leading indicator, continues to represent a tight labor market which goes hand-in-hand with an economy that is clearly not in a hard landing scenario.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE) increased 0.2% in July. Year-over-year, the index increased from 3.0% in June to 3.3% in July. Stripping out food and energy, Core PCE ticked up 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% YoY, while MoM change was 0.2%. Personal income increased 0.2%, down from 0.3% the prior month, and personal spending climbed to 0.8%, up from 0.6% the prior month. All of these readings were basically in line with expectations. The key here is uptick in YoY inflation readings, though it wasn’t horrendous by any means, it should catch the Fed’s eye as a basis for not cutting rates any time soon.

Friday:

Stocks closed out the 1st day of September on a mixed note. The 3 main indices closed with modest gains or losses while the Russell 2000 (+1.1%) outperformed. The S&P 500 kept a position above 4,500, reaching 4,501 at its low.

A jump in market rates and a sharp increase in oil prices acted as headwinds for the stock market. The 2-yr note yield rose 2 basis points, and fell 17 basis points this week, to 4.88%. The 10-yr note yield rose 8 basis points today, and fell 7 this week, to 4.17%.

Mega caps and growth stocks were relatively soft, reacting to the bump in rates and cooling off from a stronger showing earlier in the week. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth closed flat while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF ($RSP) logged a 0.4% gain and the market-cap weighted S&P 500 rose 0.2%. The Russell 3000 Value Index rose 0.6% versus a 0.1% gain in the Russell 3000 Growth Index.

Economic data for the day included the Employment Situation report, the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, and the ISM Manufacturing Index.

August Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 187K, higher than the expectations and prior readings. The prior reading was revised down to 157k from 187k, a large move down. Private payrolls came in at 179k. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% and prior 0.4%. The unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.8%. The key takeaway here is that the moderation in hourly earnings and uptick in unemployment are both good signs that Fed won’t be raising rates again.

The August S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.9, just 0.9 higher than July. Construction Spending was 0.7%, beating 0.6% expectations. The key takeaway from the report is that residential spending continues to be powered by new single-family construction to meet demand that cannot be satisfied through the existing home market.

August ISM Manufacturing Index moved up to 47.6%, beating the expected 46.7% and prior 46.4%. The key takeaway from the report is that manufacturing demand remains soft (below a reading of 50 is considered contractionary, yet conditions in the manufacturing sector appear to be slowly stabilizing.

That’s it for my recap! If you would like to see how I am building my dividend portfolio using my predictions/strategy written here, you can read about my buys in my weekly portfolio update on this link.

And if you like updates like this, follow my Twitter or my CommonStock page where I post updates on the economic data throughout the week. I have also started a Twitch Channel called Games N Gains! Every Thursday at 6PM MST I go live to hang out, play games, and chat with y’all about stocks, charts, fundamentals, and anything else you like! I hope to see you there!

Regards,

Dividend Dollars

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Earnings Economics Market Outlook Market Recap Market Update Stock Market

Stock Market Recap & Outlook (8/25/23) – Is The Market Shaking Off This Correction?

FILE - In this Dec. 1, 2020 file photo, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell listens during a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington. Federal Reserve officials were convinced last month that the U.S. economy and job growth had slowed as coronavirus cases surged across the country. They noted that the economy's outlook is heavily dependent on the course of the virus. (Al Drago/The New York Times via AP, Pool)

This weekly market recap is brought to you by Koyfin, a powerful analytical tool that I am proud to partner with. Their platform is entirely customizable for whatever data you want to look at including stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, currencies, economic data releases (one of my personal favorites used often for these posts), crypto, and even transcripts of company events! Click the link above to get a special offer only for Dividend Dollar readers or go give my product review a read if you’re interested!

Dividend Dollars’ Outlook & Opinion

Last week we leaned moderately bearish, which was a miss as $SPX currently sits at +0.82% for the week. The market neared the levels I was eyeing but didn’t fully get there. The chop up and down gave us a little bit a relief from the market correction that has been occurring for the whole month of august.

This was a light on the data front. New home sales and jobless claims came in better than expected while existing home sales, goods orders, and consumer sentiment came in lower than expected. Homebuilders are continuing to benefit from the strong demand for new home sales as existing home sales are stifled by this challenging resale market. Many sellers are unwilling to sell because they don’t want to lower their price, while buyers are unwilling to buy because prices and rates are multi-decade highs. Both sides seem to be waiting for rates to come down, though it’s uncertain when that will happen.

Interest rates this week moved higher a bit as the 10-year Treasury moved from 4.29% to a mid-week peak at 4.36%. As of this writing, it settled lower than the former at 4.23%. On Friday morning, Powell gave his speech at the Jackson Hole symposium where he said that it is the Fed’s job to bring inflation down to their 2% goal, which they are committed to. Although inflation has moved down and is very much a welcome relief, it is still too high, which suggests more rate hikes could be considered. There is a cumulative probability, per the CME FedWatch tool, of 63% chance of a hike within the next two meetings.

From a technical standpoint, the key levels we discussed last week are mostly still intact. Longer term resistance at 4,600 is obviously in play. Shorter term resistance around 4,460 was strong this week, we rejected down hard from that level on Thursday. That level also coincides closely with the 50-day SMA. We will need big strength from buyers to get back above that level before we hit new highs. Below here is the 0.618 fib level and 100-day SMA right around 4,310-4,320, this is the next level of support if we go there.

Next week we have home price, consumer confidence, and jolts job data on Tuesday, ADP employment, Q2 GDP, and pending home sales data on Wednesday, jobless claims and PCE on Thursday, and the monthly employment situation, construction spending, and ISM manufacturing index data on Friday.

Consumer sentiment indicators mostly improved this week. VIX open interest change, SPX open interest change, equity open interest change, VIX open interest put call ratio, and SPX open interest put call ratio all moved into more bullish readings. The Cboe VIX volume put call ratio and VIX futures moved into more bearish readings.

Last week, investors seemed to get a little too bearish in the near-term. Based on historical seasonality, which has a decent track record, that made the market ripe for a short-term bounce that we saw in the first half of this week. With a larger number of upgrades in the sentiment indicators than downgrades, an outlook of neutral to moderately bullish is what I am expecting next week.

Weekly Market Review

Monday: Stocks had a mixed showing in a low volume session where buy-the-dip action in the mega-caps led to the outperformance of the $QQQ and helped limit losses elsewhere. The major indices had been drifting lower in the early hours before bouncing off their lows with no specific catalyst and closing near their highs for the day.  

Treasury yields, which had been rising and keeping pressure on stocks, started to pullback from their highs around the same time that the stock market hit its lows for the day. The 2-yr note yield settled 8 basis points higher at 4.99%. The 10-yr note yield rose 9 basis points to 4.34%, which is its highest level since 2007. The 30-yr bond yield rose 8 basis points to 4.46%, hitting its highest level since 2011.  

Tesla ($TSLA) and NVIDIA ($NVDA) were top performers from the mega-cap space, up 7.3% and 8.5%, respectively. $NVDA, which reported earnings after the close on Wednesday, traded up after HSBC raised its price target to $780 from $600.  

Some anxiety for Fed Chair Powell’s speech Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium also contributed to the weakness in the Treasury market today after a Wall Street Journal article by Nick Timiraos discussed why the neutral rate may need to be higher.  

There was no economic data of note today.  

Tuesday: Stocks had a mixed showing in another low volume session that pivoted on Treasury movements. Relative strength from the mega cap space had been driving gains in the morning. The S&P 500 had been trading above 4,400 before slipping lower and then failing on retests. The indices ultimately closed  near their worst levels of the day.  

Weak bank stocks were a notable weight for the broader market after S&P downgraded the credit ratings of multiple banks on concerns of funding risks from rising rates and weaker profitability. Additionally, retailer Macy’s ($M) talked about weakening consumer credit conditions in its business, and that acknowledgment was another weight on the banks.  

Macy’s was down ~14%  following its earnings report and Dick’s Sporting Goods ($DKS) was another big loser after reporting earnings, down ~24%. Dick’s came up well shy of earnings estimates and attributed its disappointing profits and guidance to inventory shrink (i.e. theft). Lowe’s ($LOW) went against the grain, though, and posted a nice ~3% gain after its quarterly report.  

Homebuilders outperformed the broader market, boosted in part by an existing home sales report for July that continued to show a lean supply of homes for sale. The S&P 500 financials sector (-0.8%) saw the largest sector decline due to its weak bank components. The real estate sector (+0.3%), meanwhile, led the outperformers.  

Treasury yields fell overnight before nudging higher after the open. Yields ultimately settled below their highs of the day. The 2-yr note yield note rose 5 basis points to 5.04% and the 10-yr note yield fell 1 basis point to 4.33%.

Economic data for the day included only the existing home sales report for July. Existing home sales fell 2.2% MoM to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.07 million from an unrevised 4.16 million in June. This was also below the estimated reading of 4.15 million. Sales were down 16.6% from the same period a year ago.  

The key takeaway from the report is that the inventory of existing homes for sale remains tight and affordability continues to be impacted by rising prices and higher mortgage rates, all of which is also acting as moving deterrents for existing homeowners.    

Wednesday: Stocks had a strong showing, supported by a drop in rates and strong mega-caps. The indices all closed with gains ranging from 0.5% to 1.6%, although volume was still on the lighter side. Today’s upside moves brought the S&P 500 back above 4,400, which acted as an area of resistance yesterday.  

Market rates started to move lower overnight in response to a batch of soft August PMI data out of Europe. Treasuries extended their rally after the release of softening Manufacturing and Services PMI readings for the US. The 2-yr note yield fell 11 basis points to 4.93% and the 10-yr note yield fell 13 basis points to 4.20%.  

The market reflected fairly broad buying interest under the index surface. Advancers outpaced decliners by a 7-to-2 margin at the NYSE and a 2-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq. 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors logged a gain led by information technology (+1.9%), which was boosted by its mega cap components. The energy sector (-0.3%) was the lone holdout in negative territory by the close.  

Economic data for the day included the new residential home sales report, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI, and the MBA mortgage application index.  

The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index dropped -4.2%, down from the prior -0.8%. The refinance index dropped -3%. The MBA’s chief economist stated that “The ARM share of applications increased to 7.6Z%, the highest level in five months, and the number of ARM applications picked up by 4% last week.” It appears that some home buyers are willing to accept interest rate risk after the initial fixed period, indicating that buyers are expecting rate drops in the medium term.  

The preliminary August S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI reading came in at 47.0, down from the prior 49.0. The preliminary S&P Global US Services PMI came in at 51.0, down from the prior 52.3. The composite reading hit 50.4, a 6-month low and down from the prior 52.0. This latest reading signaled the weakest output since February as persistent challenges in manufacturing demand were accompanied with slower growth in the services sector.    

July New Home Sales came in at 714K, beating the expected 701k and prior 648k. The key takeaway from the report is that new home sales activity, which is measured on signed contracts, was driven by sales of more moderately priced homes as higher building costs crimped the supply of lower-priced homes while higher mortgage rates contributed to affordability pressures across the spectrum.  

Thursday: The indices closed with sizable losses on the heels of NVIDIA’s blowout earnings report that was filled with much better than expected Q3 guidance and a new $25 billion share buyback plan. Things looked different at the open, though, with many stocks building on yesterday’s gains. Mega-caps stocks rolled over quickly and never regained their opening momentum. Ultimately, the indices closed near their lows of the day.  

The disappointing price action after NVIDIA’s report likely caught many participants by surprise and became its own downside catalyst, which increased selling interest. Weak semiconductor stocks were another weight on the broader, falling prone to a sell-the-news reaction.  

Other notable laggards included Dow component Boeing ($BA) which said a new flaw found in the 737 MAX will slow deliveries in the near term, T-Mobile ($TM), which said it is going to cut approximately 7% of its staff, and Dollar Tree Stores ($DLTR) which disappointed with its Q3 outlook.  

Treasury yields settled slightly higher, keeping pressure on stocks, following another encouraging initial jobless claims report. The 2-yr note yield rose 8 basis points to 5.01% and the 10-yr note yield rose 4 basis points to 4.24%.  

Economic data for today included the initial jobless claims report and durable goods orders.  

Initial jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 230,000, under the expected 240,000, while continuing jobless claims decreased by 9,000 to 1.702 million. The leading indicator of initial claims is still leading the market to believe that the labor market remains tight, which is something that won’t escape the Fed’s eye.    

Durable goods orders fell 5.2% MoM in July to $285.9B, below the expected -4%. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased 0.5% MoM to $187.2B. The key takeaway from the report, other than July’s weakness was driven predominately by transportation, was that business spending occurred at a moderate pace, evidenced by the 0.1% increase in new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.  

Friday: The stock market finished the day in an upbeat manner that saw the indices settle near their best levels of the day, despite the low volume. The gains were put into question shortly after Fed Chair Powell gave his much anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. There were some efforts to spin that speech as being more hawkish than expected as the market retreated into negative territory, yet the speech didn’t contain any surprising revelations.  

Powell stuck by the Fed’s 2% inflation target and reiterated that the process of getting inflation back down to 2% still has a long way to go. He acknowledged that the Fed would raise rates again if it is appropriate. These are all things he said following the last FOMC meeting. Unsurprisingly, Powell also omitted any speak on rate cuts or their timing.  

The stock market regrouped and got back on a winning track. It did so with the help of renewed buying interest in the mega-cap stocks and some generally broad-based buying interest that left all 11 S&P 500 sectors in positive territory by the closing bell.  

Boeing ($BA) was the best-performing component in the $DIA one day after being the worst performing component in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The turnaround was helped by a Bloombergreport that Boeing is getting ready to resume deliveries of its 737 MAX to China.  

The Treasury market had its own ups and downs as the 2-yr note yield went as high as 5.10% before settling at 5.05%, up 4 basis points from yesterday’s settlement. The 10-yr note yield touched 4.27% soon after Fed Chair Powell’s speech but settled the day unchanged at 4.24%. The low for the S&P 500 today coincided roughly with the 10-yr note yield hitting its high for the day.  

Economic data for the day included only the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reading for August. It came in at 69.5 versus the preliminary reading of 71.2. The final reading for July was 71.6, which marked the highest level since October 2021. In the same period a year ago, the index was at 58.2. The key to the report is that if consumers think the rapid improvements seen in the economy in the past three months have moderated, then they’ll be more tentative about the outlook ahead.

That’s it for my recap! If you would like to see how I am building my dividend portfolio using my predictions/strategy written here, you can read about my buys in my weekly portfolio update on this link.

And if you like updates like this, follow my Twitter or my CommonStock page where I post updates on the economic data throughout the week. I have also started a Twitch Channel called Games N Gains! Every Thursday at 6PM MST I go live to hang out, play games, and chat with y’all about stocks, charts, fundamentals, and anything else you like! I hope to see you there!

Regards, Dividend Dollars

Categories
Economics Market Outlook Market Recap Market Update Stock Market

Stock Market Recap & Outlook (8/18/23) – Summertime Selling

This weekly market recap is brought to you by Koyfin, a powerful analytical tool that I am proud to partner with. Their platform is entirely customizable for whatever data you want to look at including stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, currencies, economic data releases (one of my personal favorites used often for these posts), crypto, and even transcripts of company events! Click the link above to get a special offer only for Dividend Dollar readers or go give my product review a read if you’re interested!

Dividend Dollars’ Outlook & Opinion

Last week we didn’t call a bullish or bearish outlook for this week. We said technical were poised for a bounce, but yields were raising and could cause some selling. We pointed to a +/-1% move with steady direction all week.

This call out was sort of right. Yields continued to rise higher, and stocks trended down for the whole week. Earnings season is nearly over, with 94% of S&P 500 companies having reported. 80% have beaten EPS expectations and 58% have beaten revenue expectations. Economic data this week had better than expected readings for retail, industrial production, employment, and trade while housing and inventories were worse than expected. None of the data was too amazing or too awful. Troubles in China and the release of the Fed minutes, in my opinion, were the largest catalysts this week.

From a technical standpoint, the $SPX support we were expecting at the 4,450 level (a level we have talked about for weeks now) did not last long. The confluence of the support there and the 50-day moving average failed in spectacular fashion on Tuesday. It may now be a stubborn resistance level for when the market moves higher, so let’s bookmark that thought. For now, there’s not much historical volume to go off of at these levels, besides the activity in June, the last time the market was in this area was over a year ago. I think the 0.618 Fibonacci level at 4,310 is the next target, which also aligns with the 100-day moving average, another confluence like last week! That level is also right above the old bull market threshold (4,292) and may provide some solid support.

For yields, the 2-, 5-, and 10-year Treasury yields are all at high levels not seen since 2007. Breaking above these levels would be a hugely significant indicator for the state of the economy. However, as we have seen time and time again in the data, GDP and the labor market are strong. Fed funds futures are expecting a less than 60% chance of a hike throughout the rest of the year. There seems to be a disconnect here, causing me to have the opinion that rates should be falling soon. If that happens, the bounce in $SPX may follow.

Wrapping up now, next week is lighter on the economic front with home data, job data, and sentiment data. Market sentiment indicators are mixed this week with $SPX open interest change, $VIX open interest put call ratios, and $VIX levels in general looking more bearish while ETF open interest change, CBOE and OCC equity volume put call ratios, and $VIX IV gap looking more bullish. There is a wide dispersion in indictors this week. A correction seems to finally hit stocks that got too far ahead of themselves, and the momentum downward seems strong, however a key support level is near. Bullishness for next week is not unreasonable, however the overall state of the market seems to be bearish, which is the direction that I will be leaning. Looking for a moderately bearish week next week and lots of chop around the key support area.

Weekly Market Review

Monday: The indices had a mixed showing on low volume at the NYSE. There wasn’t a lot of conviction in either direction, which is consistent with late-summer activity and consolidation efforts. Losers had a less than 3-to-2 lead over winners at both the NYSE and the Nasdaq.  

Mega caps had a disproportionate influence on index gains, leading to the outperformance of $SPY and $QQQ. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF ($MGK) rose 1.2% & the market-cap weighted S&P 500 logged a 0.6% gain. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF ($RSP), meanwhile, closed flat.  

There was no economic data for Monday.  

Tuesday: Stocks had a weak day in lightly traded session. The indices had been steady with somewhat modest losses after $SPX found support near its 50-day moving average. Selling picked up in the last half hour of the day when the S&P 500 broke that level. The indices settled near their worst levels of the day and the S&P 500 closed below its 50-day moving average for the first time since March.  

Investors were still contending with the idea that the market is due for a pullback after its hot run, which created valuation concerns. Growth worries were heightened by a batch of weaker than expected retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment data for July out of China, and a warning from Fitch Ratings that it might be forced to downgrade the ratings of dozens of additional banks. Lagging bank stocks were a notable area of weakness. The Fitch Ratings warning came just a week after Moody’s cut the ratings of 10 smaller US banks.   The slowdown concerns led to the underperformance of cyclically-oriented sectors and the relative outperformance of growth stocks compared to value stocks for the day.  

Economic data included the retail sales report, US imports and exports, and NAHB housing index.  

Total retail sales increase 0.7% MoM in July, beating an expected 0.4% and the prior 0.3%. Excluding autos, sales were up 1% MoM. Discretionary spending on goods continues to be healthy, providing another clue that the tight labor market continues to fend off hard landing scenarios for the economy.    

Import prices grew 0.4% MoM in July and export prices were up 0.7% MoM. Imports doubled expectations and hit its biggest monthly increase since May 2022. Nonfuel imports prices were flat while export prices jumped 0.6% for non-agriculturals. Import and export prices were still down 4.4% and 7.9% YoY, respectively.    

Lastly, the NAHB housing market index fell to 50 in August, compared to an expected reading and prior reading of 56. High mortgage rates and building costs were cited as reasons for the dop in optimism.

Wednesday: The stock market closed down, building on Tuesday’s losses in another light-volume day. Weakness had been more modest in the early day, though, due to a lack of conviction from either buyers or sellers.  

The S&P 500 hit its 50-day moving average after the open, but was unable to breach that key level, which spurred on selling interest. The indices had been trading in relatively narrow ranges until release of the FOMC Minutes from the July meeting induced some whipsaw action.  

There was some knee-jerk selling in response to some hawkish sounding headlines from the minutes. For example, “most participants continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy.” That view wasn’t surprising considering the remarks made by Fed Chair Powell after the July 25-26 meeting. All together, the minutes didn’t contain anything too surprising.  

Stocks rebounded from the knee-jerk selling but slowed down as the 10-yr note yield climbed above 4.25% and hit a closing high since last October. The S&P 500 closed just above the 4,400 level and at its lows for the session, continuing the consolidation trade that took root at the start of the month.  

Festering growth concerns also contributed to the weakness after China reported another decline in home prices. Domestic housing starts were stronger-than-expected and so was industrial production in July. Also, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model was updated and is estimating 5.8% real GDP growth in the third quarter, up from 5.0% previously. That news created some rate hike angst in the Treasury market.  

Economic data for the day included the monthly new residential construction report, the weekly MBA mortgage application index, and the total industrial production report.  

Total housing starts increased 3.9% MoM to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.452M units. Building permits increased 0.1% MoM to a rate of 1.442M. The increase in starts in permits was modest, but it was driven by single family units which are badly needed in a supply tight existing home market. The weekly MBA mortgage application index fell 0.8% and refinances fell 2% while purchase applications were flat on the week.  

Total industrial production increased 1% MoM, beating an expected 0.3% rise and a prior 0.8% decline. The capacity utilization rate rose to 79.3%, 0.4% below its long-run average and up from 78.6% in June. Total production was down 0.2% YoY. Most major market groups recorded growth in July, showing that there was a pickup in activity that fits with an economy that operates in growth mode despite the Fed’s rate hikes.        

Thursday: The indices closed on a downbeat note after trading flat in the early day. Initially, the S&P 500 was holding steady with 4,400 acting as a level of support. By the afternoon, a retreat had taken root leading the indices to close near their lows of the day and below 4,400.  

The selling looked consistent with the consolidation mindset that has driven the price action so far this month. Another jump in market rates gave investors an excuse to take more money off the table. The 10-yr note yield rose to 4.31%, settling at its highest level since November 2007.  

This weekly jobless claims data was indicative of a tight labor market, which also contributed to the move in the 10-yr note. Dow component Cisco ($CSCO) was a winning standout after its earnings report while fellow Dow component Walmart ($WMT) logged a decline after its earnings report.  

Weekly initial jobless claims were the only data of note for the day. Weekly initial claims fell to 239k, just below the expected 240k and prior 250k. Continuing claims were higher at 1.72M. Initial jobless claims is a leading indicator and is pacing at levels that are indicative of a tight labor market, which supports a soft-landing narrative.  

Friday: The market had a mixed showing on Friday. Early selling sent the S&P 500 to its lowest level in nearly 8 weeks while the Nasdaq slid to a 10-week low. The indices started to nudge higher around mid-morning on no news. There was a quick move higher in the last 10 minutes of trading that drove the Nasdaq in the green for the only time this session.

The S&P 500 closed flat, the Nasdaq fell 0.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%. The Russell 2000 had a slight edge, gaining 0.5% today.

Initial weakness was driven by losses in mega-caps, worries about China after property developer Evergrande filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection in the US, and carryover downside momentum after the persistent selling in August.

There was no economic data of note.

That’s it for my recap! If you would like to see how I am building my dividend portfolio using my predictions/strategy written here, you can read about my buys in my weekly portfolio update on this link.

And if you like updates like this, follow my Twitter or my CommonStock page where I post updates on the economic data throughout the week. I have also started a Twitch Channel called Games N Gains! Every Thursday at 6PM MST I go live to hang out, play games, and chat with y’all about stocks, charts, fundamentals, and anything else you like! I hope to see you there!

Regards, Dividend Dollars

Categories
Economics Market Outlook Market Recap Market Update Stock Market

Stock Market Recap & Outlook (8/11/23) – A Week of More Headwinds Than Tailwinds

This weekly market recap is brought to you by Koyfin, a powerful analytical tool that I am proud to partner with. Their platform is entirely customizable for whatever data you want to look at including stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, currencies, economic data releases (one of my personal favorites used often for these posts), crypto, and even transcripts of company events! Click the link above to get a special offer only for Dividend Dollar readers or go give my product review a read if you’re interested!

Dividend Dollars’ Outlook & Opinion

Last week’s call of neutral was pretty spot on for this week with the S&P 500 only down 0.3%. A pullback seemed needed for the market, now that we’ve been in one for two weeks what’s the outlook going forward? Let’s dive in!

This week we had two inflation readings with CPI and PPI. Neither headlines nor the core readings were big surprises in either direction, though reactions in the market were to the downside. Both The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are trading near their one month lows. The recent slide in stocks may be due to bearish seasonality, bearish technical which we have been following, and a lack of bullish catalysts as earnings comes to a close.

With earnings season roughly 90% done, S&P 500 companies have beat on revenue and EPS expectations roughly 58% and 79% of the time, respectively, per FactSet. Next week will have some high-profile reports to watch with $HD, $TGT, $CSCO, $WMT, $DE, and others.

From a technical perspective, this pullback was alluded to with the bearish divergence in price action compared to RSI, though I didn’t make note of this at the time. Price kept hitting higher highs but RSI was making lower highs.

Unfortunately, the channel we were watching in the below chart broke. So what have we got to look at this week?

Lucky for us, I have three SPX charts today, so we have plenty of coverage! This below chart is probably the chart we look at the most. We have a Fibonacci retracement from the highs of January 2022 to the lows of October 2022 providing us with many key levels. In addition, we also have key SMAs in place with the 50, 100, and 200 day lines. And lastly, we also have a key level near 4,450 that we mentioned last week (shorter white line). Last week, we said that key 4,450 level will need to be broken before the fib level sitting at 4,310 becomes a target. This week, $SPX ended almost right on that line. Below is our comment last week on that level.

The 50 day SMA also rose to sit right at that line as well. This spot will be a key level of support going into next week, however bearish momentum is strong, so this support could turn into resistance very quickly on Monday if we have a poor open.

With mixed economic data this, some key earnings reports next week, and not too heavy of a data week next week, price action should largely be driven by technicals and yields. With the markets sitting at support, and yields approaching highs, a timely retreat in yields paired with the market’s support could provide us with a relief rally. However, if yields don’t play ball, more selling could come. Technicals point to bounce, but yields aim higher, therefore my outlook for next week will be neutral again. Whichever direction we head, I think it will be steady throughout the week, meaning I expect a +/- 1% but am not confident in direction.

Weekly Market Review

Monday: Not much action today. Most of the moves came at the open, after that the broader market fought to keep and add to gains. Monday was a buy-the-dip kind of day that favored blue chips and value plays. This created a nice day for the $DIA, which saw only 10% of its number ending the day red.  

The only data for the day was the June Consumer Credit Report, which came in at a $17.9B increase in credit, compared to an expected $13B. This was driven by an increase in nonrevolving credit. On the other hand, revolving credit saw its first decline since April 2021.    

Tuesday: Tuesday was a big red day! It could have been much worse, but the indices recovered from their worst levels and ended the day near a ~-0.5% loss. Losses were driven by what seemed to be a consolidation effort, as weakness was broad-based.  

Concerns on global growth created an excuse for selling efforts. These concerns came from a weaker than expected trade data out of China for July. It showed a 14.5% YoY decline in exports and 12.4% decline in imports. Adding to the concerns, $UPS issued a disappointing FY 23 outlook, citing weaking commerce demand. Weak bank stocks also contributed to this sad day after Moody’s downgraded 10 smaller sized banks and put a few other larger banks on watch.  

Economic data for the day included the NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey and the June Trade Balance report.  

The Small Business Optimism Survey came in at 91.9 for July, just under the expected 92.1 but over the prior 91.0. This is the highest level in 8 months and inflation concerns fell to the lowest level in nearly 2 years.      

The Trade Balance report came in at -$65.5B compared to an expected -$65.1B. The lack of growth in exports and imports in this report is indicative of weaker demand overall, at home and abroad.  

Wednesday: Wednesday was another losing day, especially with the sharp turn lower at the end of the day. The downside was wide, with many stocks taking hits, but mega cap losses had an outsized impact on the indices. $RSP closed at -0.3% and $MGK was down -1.1%.  

Economic data for the day was only the MBA Mortgage Applications Index. The index was down 3.1% last week. Purchases were down 3% and refinances were down 4%.    

Thursday: The indices started on a strong note, but closed flattish in another tight trading session. Solid buying interest came right out the gate, fueled by buy-the-dip mentality and good data from CPI and jobless claims.  

However, that green start fell apart as mega caps faded from their highs and the 10-year note yield climbed above 4% after a bond auction. This pushed the indices to close near their lows for the day.

Data for the day included the CPI and the Jobless Claims Report.  

Total CPI was up 0.2% MoM in July, as expected, and core CPI was also up 0.2% MoM, as expected. These figures were up 3.2% and 4.7% on a YoY basis, respectively, compared to 3.0% and 4.8% readings in June. There were no bearish surprises here, as both were spot on with the estimates. The shelter index accounted for more than 90% of the increase in the all-items index. Less shelter, the all-items index was up just 1% YoY.  

Initial jobless claims for last week increased by 21k to 248k, compared to the expected 230k. Continuing claims decreased by 8k to 1.684M. Though job levels are still dramatically low levels that indicate a recession, they did move in a direction that shows some softening this last week. This is what the Fed expects, and probably hopes, to see.  

Friday: Friday had us close the first full week of August on a mixed note. Rates jumped in response to a slightly hotter than expected PPI reading, which created a reason for more consolidation/risk-off mentalities from investors.  

The 2-year T yield rose to 4.89%, the 10-year hit 4.17%! These moves created obvious pressure, as mega caps dragged and pulled down the indices with them. Market breadth also was mixed as winners lead losers at the NYSE but losers lead winners at the Nasdaq.  

Economic data for the day included the PPI report and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Reading.  

The July PPI came in at +0.3%, compared to an expected +0.2% and a prior flat reading. The core PPI was also +0.3%, compared to an expected +0.2% and a prior -0.1%. The takeaway here is that wholesale inflation has come down since its peak in 2022, but the recent increase in energy costs are causing some concern that further improvement in inflation is going to be delayed.    

The preliminary august consumer sentiment reading came in at 71.2, above the expected 70.9 but just below the prior reading of 71.6. The report showed little move in sentiment, due largely in part to steady inflation expectations. The year ahead and five-year ahead expectations fell by 10 basis points each. Will be interesting to see how this moves in the next quarter with the deceleration in inflation appearing to slow this last month.  

That’s it for my recap! If you would like to see how I am building my dividend portfolio using my predictions/strategy written here, you can read about my buys in my weekly portfolio update on this link.

And if you like updates like this, follow my Twitter or my CommonStock page where I post updates on the economic data throughout the week. I have also started a Twitch Channel called Games N Gains! Every Thursday at 6PM MST I go live to hang out, play games, and chat with y’all about stocks, charts, fundamentals, and anything else you like! I hope to see you there!

Regards, Dividend Dollars

Categories
Earnings Economics Market Outlook Market Recap Stock Market

Stock Market Recap & Outlook (7/21/23) – A Choppy Week That Was More Concerned About the Next

Photo by Pixabay on Pexels.com

This weekly market recap is brought to you by Koyfin, a powerful analytical tool that I am proud to partner with. Their platform is entirely customizable for whatever data you want to look at including stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, currencies, economic data releases (one of my personal favorites used often for these posts), crypto, and even transcripts of company events! Click the link above to get a special offer only for Dividend Dollar readers or go give my product review a read if you’re interested!

Dividend Dollars’ Outlook & Opinion

Last week, we expected the market to be fairly bullish and anticipated some hesitancy in price action due to the approaching Fed meeting. This was spot on as the market made fair games at +0.7% this week.

59 companies of the S&P 500 reported their Q2 earnings. 48 of them beat EPS expectations. So far, reporting companies have beat EPS 79% of the time and revenue beats 55% of the time. This, paired with positive June retail sales report and continued low unemployment statistics spurred positive price action in the first few days, some of those gains were later given up on Thursday.

From a technical stand point, equities were kept down in April and May (white box) by the regional banking issues and debt ceiling battle. As banking worries subsided and a debt ceiling deal was reached, market breadth began to expand and a week later the +20% mark was reached, triggering the start of a new bull market. The bullishness in the market (green box) began the same day the debt ceiling deal was announced. It also coincides with June 1st being only the second day that the VIX closed below 16. It has closed below that every day since.

Price action this week had us push above my .786 fib level, we came back on tested it on Thursday and bounced higher on Friday. A good confirmation of support at that level in my opinion. Next area of resistance will be in the blue 4,580 – 4,630 range created by the peak in price last March. I expect heavy resistance here, because after that is cleared, new all time highs are the next logical target, yet there are still uncertainties for equities and the economy that has the potential to rear its head and change sentiment. If there’s potential for a 5-10% correction, the time for it to occur may be getting close.

Market sentiment indicators mostly deteriorated this week. SPX open interest change, VIX and SPX open interest put call ratios, VIX volume put call ratio, equity VPCR, and VIX futures all changed negatively this week, half of them deteriorated from moderately bullish levels to neutral levels while the other have went from neutral to moderately bearish levels.

Data is softening and earnings results are heading back towards longer-term trends. The bottom line is that economic data was most disappointing this week and earnings kicking off, bullish momentum appears to have moderated, but still hasn’t disappeared. Technically speaking, a pause in the rally next week seems to be evident in the chart and indicators. Any pause may only be temporary, depending on the reception of the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday and GDP for Q2 estimate on Thursday. I’m leaning moderately bullish to neutral for the next week in the market.

Weekly Market Review

Summary: The market brought us another winning week this week! Buying interest was broad as mega-caps underperformed due to profit taking and valuation angst ahead of mega-cap earning reports. $MGK fell 1% this week while the $RSP gained 1.4%.

Tesla and Netflix were laggards with some consolidation in price action after their better-than-expected earnings. Taiwan Semiconductor was another loser after warning about inventory adjustments due to slowing market demand, they did still report better than expected results though.

Bank stocks outperformed as the heavy schedule of earnings and commentary brought up no concerns of economic headwinds. $BAC, $NTRS, $MTB, $WAL, and $USB all hit nice gains after their reports.  

These results and the week’s data corroborated the view that a soft landing is possible. Initial jobless claims show continued strength in the job market. Housing and retail data were a little softer, but still didn’t sound any alarms. With the soft-landing idea intact, traders were inclined to fade the mega caps this week and buy non-tech and value stocks as evident in a number of value indices outperforming.

8 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors had gains this week. Communications and Consumer Discretionary were the standout losers while Energy and Healthcare were neck and neck for the #1 spot.

Monday: Markets had a solid day on Monday, with a spattering of tickers hitting 52-week highs. There weren’t any meaningful drivers behind the positive price action, it was really just investors forging ahead on the hopeful notion that the US economy will avoid a recessions and that the Fed is close to done raising rates.

Telecoms took a large hit amid concerns about potential liabilities related to the industry’s historical use of lead sheathed cables as noted in WSJ article that came out over the weekend. Afterwards, both companies received a number of downgrades.

Data for the day was only the July Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The survey came in at 1.1, down from the previous reading but higher than expected. The price paid index within the survey fell to 16.7, a continued sign of price moderation.

Tuesday: Tuesday started a bit mixed, but ended with solid gains after several mega caps recovered from early losses. $MSFT was down 1% at its low and surged higher after making a handful announcements, the largest of which is an expanded AI partnership with $META.

Gains for the broader market were driven, again, by hopefulness of a strong US economy. The data for the day helped corroborate this. Bank gains also helped with a number of strong earnings.

Data for the day included the Retail Sales Report, Industrial Production, and the NAHB Housing market index.

June retail sales rose 0.2%, the 3rd straight monthly increase, but less than the 0.5% forecasted. Excluding gas and autos, sales were up 0.3% for the month. The control group of sales, which most closely resembles the consumer spending component of GDP, increased 0.6%, doubling expectations. That last figure is the key takeaway, a solid 0.6% reading is far above levels of an economy in recessionary distress.

Industrial production fell 0.5% in June, the 2nd straight monthly decline, versus expectations of remaining flat. Production still rose 0.7% during the 2nd quarter. Manufacturing was down 0.3% during June. Capacity utilization slid to 78.9%, down from 79.4% in May. The takeaway here is that most major market groups posted declined in June, showing a softening demand that has hurt the manufacturing side of the economy more than other sectors.

Lastly, the NAHB Housing Market Index came in at 56 in July, matching expectations. The previous reading was 55. Current sales and prospective buyers were higher, while expected sales were lower.

Wednesday: Markets opened slightly higher and had choppy action all day, but still managed to get some gains. There was no strength in any selling interest, despite some calls for a pullback after this big market run.

Apple made the news with a report that the company is internally testing AI tools. Goldman Sachs outperformed despite missing on their Q2 earnings. Several other banks were also notable winners on the day.   Data for Wednesday included the MBA mortgage application index and Housing starts.

The MBA mortgage application index rose 1.1% after a 0.9% last week. Refinance applications were up 7% and purchase applications down 1%.

Total housing starts fell 8% MoM to an annual rate of 1.434M compared to an expected 1.475M. Single family starts were down in all regions expect the West. Building permits fell 3.7% MoM to a rate of 1.44M compared to an expected 1.472M. Permits for single family units were flat to positive in all regions. The higher financing costs of the market are creating headwinds for builders and preventing activity from being stronger in a supply-constrained housing market.

Thursday: Stocks were mixed today as concerns of being in overbought territory came up. Mega caps were weak with poor performance in $TSLA, $NFLX, and $TSM in response to their earnings reports. However, the broader market was resilient. $RSP was down only 0.1% compared to 0.7% for $SPY.

Data for the day included the weekly jobless claims and existing home sales reports.

Initial claims for the week decreased by 9,000 to 228,000 (consensus 240,000). That is the lowest level of initial claims since mid-May when the S&P 500 was around 4,100 or 11.4% lower than where it is today. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending July 8th increased 33,000 to 1.754 million. Still, employment levels remain well above recessionary levels.

Existing home sales fell 3.3% MoM in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.16 million (consensus 4.25 million) from an unrevised 4.30 million in May. Sales were down 18.9% from the same period a year ago. The takeaway in the report is that the inventory of existing homes for sale is still tight. This is due to a strong labor market, ability to work remotely, and the jump in mortgage rates that are deterring existing homeowner’s from moving. Because there’s a lack of transacting, existing home sales are crimped by limited supply more than by weak demand.

Friday: Friday closed as a mixed day. There wasn’t outsized selling interest, but there wasn’t much buying interest either. The market felt as if we were all waiting and looking ahead to the busy earnings next week and the FOMC meeting.

Still, the broader market held up well as the $RSP was up 0.1% and $MGK was down 0.2%. There was no data for the day.

That’s it for my recap! If you would like to see how I am building my dividend portfolio using my predictions/strategy written here, you can read about my buys in my weekly portfolio update on this link.

And if you like updates like this, follow my Twitter or my CommonStock page where I post updates on the economic data throughout the week. I have also started a Twitch Channel called Games N Gains! Every Thursday at 6PM MST I go live to hang out, play games, and chat with y’all about stocks, charts, fundamentals, and anything else you like! I hope to see you in there!

Regards,

Dividend Dollars

Categories
Economics Market Outlook Market Recap Market Update Stock Market

Weekly Stock Market Recap & Outlook (7/7/23) – A Bumpy Start to Q3

This weekly market recap is brought to you by Koyfin, a powerful analytical tool that I am proud to partner with. Their platform is entirely customizable for whatever data you want to look at including stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, currencies, economic data releases (one of my personal favorites used often for these posts), crypto, and even transcripts of company events! Click the link above to get a special offer only for Dividend Dollar readers or go give my product review a read if you’re interested!

Dividend Dollars’ Outlook & Opinion

Last week I was personally bullish, so that didn’t work out for me. But the bearish cases I gave you were spot on. We mentioned that markets tend to pivot at the start of a new quarter, we saw that very clearly this week. I also gave bearish targets of 4,380 and 4,300. The low of this week nearly perfectly hit the first mark at 4,385. It is hard to be spot on with these outlooks, that’s why keeping an eye on both cases is important, because one side of our outlooks tend to be scarily accurate.

This was a busy week for economic data, especially with it being a shortened holiday week as much of the market took the 4th as opportunity to have a 4 day weekend. We had a smattering of employment data figures, most of which supported the soft-landing narrative but also left rooms for concerns of additional rate hikes.

Last week, the technicals and indicators really only provided a break-out signal, but it was not clear in which direction. Monday gave us a little bit of a fake out as price action hit a new bull-market high of $4,456 and then we ultimately ended the week with just under a 1% loss. The new bull-market high has moved the -10% correction line up to $,010 and the -20% bear market line up to $3,564.

Bull/Bear markets are defined by up/down moves of 20%, at that point they are backdated to the last low/high point. Since we hit a new high on Monday, the market is up 24.6% since the start of the bull market on 10/12/22 and has lasted 264 days, both the weakest and shortest bull market to have occurred since WWII. Does it still have more in the tank?

Next week we have the CPI reading on Wednesday and PPI reading on Thursday. Same as last week, there was roughly an equal number of upgrades and downgrades on sentiment indicators. VIX OI and equity OI improved while VIX, VIX IV, and SPX OI put call ratio worsened. There’s still plenty of potential pullback catalysts on the way, but bullish momentum is also a strong counterbalance. The chart bounced perfectly at the bottom of the channel on Thursday, confirming my support in the area. I am neutral coming into next week, I’d like to see strong movement in either direction to break the red channel and then follow the trend in whichever direction is setting it for next week.

Weekly Market Review

Summary:

The shortened week started out slow for the market, as expected with the 4th pushing lots of investors to take a 4-day weekend. After the holiday there were some catalysts that encouraged investors to pull out some money after the strong start to the first half of this year.  

Geopolitical and global growth concerns were present in the early week following PMI readings that were weaker than expected for China and Europe. Later in the week, rising treasury yields were a big factor in driving stock sales following the stronger than expected ADP employment figures for June.  

The bump in rates increased valuation concerns in the market as the possibility of another Fed rate hike grew. The fed funds futures market still sees only one more hike on the horizon. The FedWatch tool shows that there is a 93% change of hike this month, followed by 24%, 34%, and 30% chance of a second hike in the following three meetings of this year.

 

Another rate hike, and potentially increased chances of a second rate hike depending on incoming data, makes it harder for stocks to compete with the risk-free rate. This creates headwinds for stocks, so we always want to keep an eye on it. Obviously it’s been on my mind since my girlfriend told me I was sleep talking about interest rates last night!  

Overall, only one sector made gains this week. Real Estate was the stand out S&P 500 performed with a +0.2% gain meanwhile Healthcare, materials, and IT were all the worst losers with losses ranging from 2.9% to 1.5%.  

Monday:

The market closed early today and marked the start of a new month, quarter, and half of the year on a slightly higher note. Volume was light but decent for a shortened day. Conviction was lacking as the market was absent many traders.  

EV makers $TSLA and $RIVN were top standouts for the day after impressing with Q2 delivery numbers. The Regional Banking ETF $KRE rose 2.3% following capital return plans announced by some banks after the stress test results.  

Data for the day included the June ISM Manufacturing Index and the Total Construction Spending report.   The June ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 46% compared to an expected 47.1% and a prior 46.9%. The sub-50% reading reflects a general contraction for manufacturing activity for the 8th straight month.  

Total Construction Spending increased 0.9% MoM compared to an expected 0.4% and prior 0.4%. Total private construction was up 1.1% MoM while total public construction rose 0.1%. There is renewed strength in new single family construction which reflects the pick up in demand for housing despite the jump in mortgage rates (a top we have discussed in the Games N Gains twitch stream).  

 Tuesday:

Happy 4th of July!

Wednesday:

The major indices all hit losses this day with several catalysts bringing traders to take some money off the table. The Services PMI reading for June from China and Europe were weaker than expected, the US had headlines that they’re looking to restrict China’s access to cloud computing, and China said foreign entities must request permission to export certain materials.  

There was also some selling in wake of the release of the FOMC Minutes for the June meeting. The minutes weren’t surprising though and the markets quickly bounced back. Ultimately, this day ended close to where the indices were trading before the minutes were dropped.  

Data for the day included only the Factory Orders. They increase 0.3% MoM compared to a 0.6% consensus and prior 0.3%. Excluding transportation, the reading fell by 0.5% MoM after a 0.6% decline in April. Shipments of manufactured goods also grew 0.3% MoM after falling 0.6% in April. This all shows new order activity continues to be week, excluding transportation.    

Thursday:

This was another losing day with a little rebound from the lows. Rising Treasury rates were a big factor in the stock retreat for the day. The 2 year note yield rose 5.01% and the 10 year not yield rose to 4.04% in response to the strong labor data and stronger than expected Non-Manufacturing ISM report. These moves caused higher probabilities and concerns of another Fed hike at the next meeting.  

Economic data for the day included the ADP jobs report, initial jobless claims, the Jolts job openings report, the trade balance report, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing index report for June.  

The ADP report showed private sector hiring increased by 497,000, a huge increase on 245,000 expectations and 267,000 prior reading. Service sectors surged with 373,000 adds. Small and medium businesses led the hiring with gains of 299,000 and 183,000. JOLTS job openings totaled 9.824M following the 10.32M from April. Initial jobless claims increase by 12,000 to 248,000, just slightly above the consensus of 245,000. Continuing claims fell by 13,000. The leading indicators from all job reports continue to come in lower than recessionary levels.

The May Trade Balance Report showed a shrinking deficit to $69B, in line with expectations and below the prior $74.4B reading. This is a move in a good direction, but not because of any overwhelming strength in exports, which were actually less than the prior month’s. The swing factor was that imports were $7.5B less than the prior month. The decrease in imports and exports shows softening global demand that we would expect to see in a global rising rate environment.    

Lastly, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index hit 53.9%, above the expected 51.1% and prior 50.3%. This increase suggests activity in the services sector is picking up steam and comfortably places the index above the 50% contraction/expansion line. This growth in services is a trend that could cause hard-landing concerns and presumably could contribute to the Fed’s inclination of additional hikes.

Friday:

The market looked better today, however, things worsened in the afternoon when some mega-caps rolled over into the red. Gainer led losers by a 5 to 2 margin on the NYSE and a 2 to 1 margin on the Nasdaq. Small caps and value stocks showed relative strength, reflecting a shift in growth mentality.  

Data for the day included the nonfarm payrolls which increased by 209,000, compared to an expected 220,000 and a prior decrease of 110,000. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4%. This still fits the soft-landing narrative as payroll growth slowed but still remained positive.    

That’s it for my recap! If you would like to see how I am building my dividend portfolio using my predictions/strategy written here, you can read about my buys in my weekly portfolio update on this link.

And if you like updates like this, follow my Twitter or my CommonStock page where I post updates on the economic data throughout the week. I have also started a Twitch Channel called Games N Gains! Every Thursday at 6PM MST I go live to hang out, play games, and chat with y’all about stocks, charts, fundamentals, and anything else you like! I hope to see you in there!

Regards, Dividend Dollars

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Economics Market Outlook Market Recap Market Update Stock Market

Stock Market Recap & Outlook (6/23/23) – A Pullback Week on Global Rate Hikes and Growth Concerns

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Dividend Dollars’ Outlook & Opinion

Last week we called to be ready to play either side as bullish momentum had a chance at continuing while the RSI levels and resistance was evidence enough to counterargue a down week. We ultimately had the down week, but didn’t go quite as low to the 4,300 level I had called out as we closed at 4,348 this week.

Mixed economic data, hawkishness from Fed Chair Powell’s two day testimony, and a number of central bank rate hikes gave investors plenty to digest and feel bearish about this week. However, in the grand scheme of things, the market is still looking like it’s in great shape. The S&P 500 is up over 13% so far in 2023. Historically, whenever SPX has ended June over +10%, the index has ended the year higher 82% of the time, gaining 7.7% on average.

Technicals wise, we fell out of the resistance area I had pointed out last week. The next key level will be near the 0.618 fib line, which coincides with the 2022 peak seen in August. The RSI that was exceptionally high last week has turned back lower out of overbought levels.

The selling that we saw last Friday, going into the holiday week was typical. The selling that we saw this week was also typical of a shortened holiday week, though it was spurred on by central bank rate hikes and growth concerns. However, rate hikes and growth concerns have been a constant in this market since we saw rate hikes start in early 2022. Therefore, a part of me thinks that this selling week we just had was a product of the timing of those factors. However, with inflationary and growth  concerns coming to forefront again, the PCE reading and Q1 GDP final reading in the later week may be the ultimate deciders on if we have a red or green week next week.

Ultimately, I’m giving a mixed call again this week. If data is good, we could see a push back higher to levels we were at last week. On the other hand we could get pushed back down to that 4,315 area and see if support holds.

Weekly Market Review

Summary:

This shortened holiday week saw $SPY and $QQQ break their winning streaks of 5 and 8 weeks. There was a sense that a pullback was due going into this week, so losses were primarily driven by profit-taking. Mega-caps continued to be relative out-performers, counter to the expected consolidation theme that many of us had. But selling was mostly non-tech related as the $RSP was down 2.7% while $MGK was only down 1%.

By the end of the week, concerns of growth and effects of rate hikes had entered the market’s narrative. Fed Powell said in his monetary policy testimony on Wednesday that there could be 2 more rate hikes before end of year. He continued his testimony on Thursday but that came with no new surprises, however the members of the senate banking committee did have thoughts on the capital requirements for banks, which sliced the performance of bank stocks this week.

Several central banks announced increases this week included the BOE, Norges Bank, Swiss National Bank, and Central Bank of Turkey, lighting up global growth concerns. To add to the concerns, manufacturing PMI’s came in for Japan, Germany, the US, and the Eurozone which all came in under 50 (the contraction level).

No sectors of the S&P 500 made gains this week. Healthcare was the closest to being green, while real estate, energy, and technology were the biggest losers.

Monday:

No news, Federal Holiday. YAY!

Tuesday:

The week started on Tuesday with widespread selling that was driven by pullback sentiment. The major indices were able to close higher than their lows for the day thanks to end of day strength in mega-caps. $MGK was down by 0.9% at the most and closed at 0.1% while $RSP was down by 0.9% at the most and closed down 0.5%.

Homebuilder ETFs like $ITB and $XHB were up strongly due to better than expected housing for May. Total housing starts were up 21.7% MoM to an annual rate of 1.631M, above the 1.4M expectation. The prior month’s reading was 1.34M, creating the strangest pace of starts since April 2022. Total building permits were up 5.2% MoM to 1.491M, above the 1.417M reading last month. The takeaway from the report is that single-unit permits (typically a leading indicator) grew by 4.8% and single-unit starts were up 18.5%. This is a good sign for a supply-challenged housing market and homebuilders’ profits.

Wednesday:

Again, price action for Wednesday was driven by mega-caps and consolidation sentiment. Investors were also digesting Powell’s semiannual testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. His comments weren’t too surprising and did not move the market much. He reaffirmed the fact that there is still lots of work to do to get inflation down to the target and that most Fed members anticipate additional tightening this year.

The market had an early slide in the day. A rebound effort occurred in the afternoon as Treasury yields fell due to a $12B 20-year bond reopening at 1:00 PM EST causing stocks to rise on the lower rates. The 2-year rate fell 9 basis points before settling at 4.71%. The 10 year fell 8 basis points and settled at 3.72%.

Data for the day only involved the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index which was up 0.5%. Purchase applications were up 2.0% while refinancing was down by the same amount.

Thursday:

The market was mixed on Thursday as there was broader consolidation efforts on growth concerns and general market support in the mega-caps. $MGK rose 1.1% while the major indices closed near their best levels of the day. However, the $RSP fell 0.4%. Market breadth is showing some negative action under the hood as decliners in the NYSE lead with a 2 to 1 margin. That margin was 2 to 3 at the Nasdaq.

The underlying growth concerns were in response to rate hikes from the Bank of England, Norges Bank, Swiss National Bank, and the Central Bank of Turkey. Powell’s continued testimony indicated that there could be two more rate hikes by the Fed before the end of the year. Afterwards, Fed Governor Bowman also stated today that “additional policy rate increases will be necessary to bring inflation down.”

Powell’s testimony, again, didn’t have any surprises. However, the committee did surprise with some member commentary focusing on increasing capital requirements for large banks, particularly those over $100 billion in assets. This brought about some selling in the sector as $KBE and $KRE both fell around 3% on the day.

Economic data for the day included the initial jobless claims and existing home sales. Initial jobless claims for the week were flat at 264,000. The four week moving average was 255,750 and is the highest it’s been since November 2021. The continuing claims fell by 13,000 to 1.759 million. The takeaway here is that initial claims have remained higher than normal for 3 straight weeks suggesting there is some loosening happening. However, the level of claims is still well below levels seen in prior recessions.

Existing home sales grew 0.2% MoM in May to an annual rate of 4.3 million, compared to an expected 4.28. Sales were down 20.4% compared to this time last year. Inventory of existing homes for sale is still tight, which is due in part to the strong labor market, the ability to work from home, and high mortgage rates deterring existing owners from transacting.

Friday:

The market closed the week on a defeated note. Consolidation efforts contributed to some weakness in the day, though global growth concerns were another contributor. Rebounds were attempted, but cut short. The major indices were all down between 0.7% to 1.4% for the day.

The downside moves followed a slurry of unimpressive Manufacturing PMIs for Japan, Germany, the UK, the Eurozone, and the US. All of the readings came in under 50 (contractionary level). This news paired with the central bank hikes on Thursday fueled worries of economic activity.

The G4 Flash PMI survey for June showed business activity grew for the 5th month in a row. However, the rate of growth slowed from May’s 13 month high to the weakest reading since February. The slowdown was led by manufacturing where output fell for the 12th time in the last 13 months. The services sector continued its expansion for the 5th straight month, though it appears to be losing momentum.

That’s it for my recap! If you would like to see how I am building my dividend portfolio using my predictions/strategy written here, you can read about my buys in my weekly portfolio update on this link.

And if you like updates like this, follow my Twitter or my CommonStock page where I post updates on the economic data throughout the week. I have also started a Twitch Channel called Games N Gains! Every Thursday at 6PM MST I go live to hang out, play games, and chat with y’all about stocks, charts, fundamentals, and anything else you like! I hope to see you in there!

Regards,

Dividend Dollars